X-raying Osun State election and security threat assessment

By Emeka Ibemere

Come Saturday, August 9, 2014 all eyes would be in the State of Osun, nicked-named the living spring.

It’s the day the Osu

nlites would be queued behind their next leaders to choose among the contending gladiators, who will occupy the government House of the State of Osun as it’s fondly regarded.

Its one election everybody has been expecting, because of its high tension preparations by the contenders.

The State of Osun of recent has becoming a boiling point for two major political parties in the race to clinch the governorship seat of that tranquil state.

However, politics in Nigeria, being what it is, the security challenges posed by the election of 9^th August by both the players, umpires and state should not be underrated, as countdown nears its end.

X-raying the security challenges posed by the Saturday’s election, it’s obvious that there may be pockets of crises in some areas of the state and its on this background that a Non Governmental Organisation has its assessment of the Osun election warns the stakeholders and the politicians to be wary of the Saturday election.

According to the CLEEN FOUNDATION, a Group that tends to promote public safety, security and justice through empirical research, legislative advocacy, demonstration programmes and publications in partnership with government, civil society and the private sector revealed in their Osun election assessment, a key risk factors that could led to crises in the election.

This edition of CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Brief (ESB), examines the security threats and mitigating factors as well as recommends measures to prevent electoral violence in the Osun election.

The group therefore, called on security agencies to brace up for electoral violence that may erupt on Saturday. The Group’s Director of Programme disclosed in the organisation’s survey of security implication in Osun and tagged it key risk factors.

“Unguarded statements, inflammatory and inciting comments by political gladiators in the state, any perceived act of prejudice or bias by security agents in favour or against any of the contestants can resort to breakdown of law and order”, late arrival of election personnel and inadequate polling materials, inadequate security personnel at polling units.”  

Others are, “unwarranted clampdown on opposition leaders as alleged in Ekiti State and overzealousness on the part of the security agents can be counter-productive as the people may resist any act of molestation or harassment.

Arrival of election personnel and inadequate polling materials: INEC got this right in Ekiti and this significantly contributed to the overall success of the election.

A repeat performance will be needed in Osun. Inability of some voters to collect their Permanent Voters Cards or to find their names on the Voters Register may cause some challenges at polling units. Vote-buying as is currently being alleged is an incentive to violence and a great risk factor. Inadequate security personnel at polling units may lead to disorderliness which some undesirable elements may want to take advantage of to perpetrate electoral fraud and violence. Also, bias and inaccurate media reportage can be a serious risk factor; sensational news and integrity deficit reportage will harm the electoral process and can cause mayhem”, the survey stated. 

According to the reports made available to Daily Newswatch, in Lagos State, the survey also said crises could also be averted when things are done properly.

“Timely distribution of election materials and personnel by INEC, enforcement of code of conduct for political parties and readiness to prosecute electoral offenders, training of Divisional Police Officers, Area commanders and other security agencies on election security management with the strategic, early deployment of adequate security to identified areas of threat in the state and adequate sensitization of the electorate on the electoral process and the need to eschew violence”, the survey says, could do the miracle of aborting crises”.

“The above are the key threats to security in the Osun State gubernatorial election”

It would be recalled that on 9 August 2014, Osun state would be heading to the polls to elect its governor in what seems to be a hot contested election.  Reports say that this would be the 10th staggered election since 2011, and the possibly the last one before the 2015 general elections.

Therefore, it is likely evidence the culmination of lessons learnt from previous elections, and gauge preparedness for the forthcoming general election, would be tested.

“The stakes are also very high in Osun State. Though candidates of 20 political parties have been cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest for the election, it is essentially seen as a race between the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC)”, the survey highlighted.

“Coming on the heels of the Ekiti loss by APC to the PDP, the Osun election will be a battle for dominance and supremacy. The APC will be seeking to halt its reversal of fortunes and bolster the confidence of its members nationwide that it is still a force to reckon with, while the PDP will want to assert that its victory in Ekiti was not a fluke but indicative of the wide acceptance of the party”.

According to the report, INEC would also be seeking to consolidate on its successful outing during the Ekiti State election.  As always, significant attention would be on security agencies especially with the massive deployment of troops recorded in Ekiti, its attendant challenges, and the likelihood of a repeat in Osun.

The survey also showed the likely hotbed of political crisis in Osun State that need to be kept under close security watch before, during and after the August 9 polls include.

 According to the investigation carried out by CLEEN FOUNDATION, Ile-Ife the hometown of the PDP candidate, Ilesa the hometown of the APC candidate, Ila-Orangun the hometown of APC chieftain and former governor of Osun State, Chief Bisi Akande should be placed on red alert.

Other areas include Iwo, Ikirun, Oshogbo and Ede the hometown of another APC chieftain and former governor of Osun State, Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke, where the PDP candidate’s running mate, Hon. Adejare Bello also hails from.

It is expected that if the eagle eyes of the security agencies were on alert, the State of Osun would sure be a Living spring instead of dead spring. The new Inspector General of Police, Suleiman Abba actually may be out for his first assignment in Osun, if you ask me.