States that will boil in 2015

....Security assessment of 2015 election by CLEEN Foundation

Emeka Ibemere

If you live in these states of the federation, February 14, 2014 is not going to be ‘Lovers’ Day,’ even during and after the election.

Why. They are hot spots for the 2015 election.

According to CLEEN Foundation, these states are on RED Alert: From North Central zone of the country, to the North East, to the North West and from some states in South- South to few states in the south west to one state in the South East, the picture looks gloomy.

These are the states: Benue, Nassarawa, Niger and Plateau; Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, and Kastina States. Others are Bayelsa, Rivers, Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, Imo, and Ebonyi States.

Other states according to CLENN are on amber: they are Federal Capital Territory, Kogi, and Kwara; Zamfara, Sokoto, Enugu, Abia and Anambra States. Others are Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Edo; Ogun and Ondo States. CLEEN said Jigawa, Kebbi and Osun States are on GREEN and they are good to go.

The group in their survey stated that key risk factors that posed danger for the election in the North East and West are Boko Haram insurgency in the North East:

As a major political hotbed in Nigeria, the region can be very combustive and required better understanding to manage the increasing tension. The security situation is still dominated by cases of cattle rustling, banditry, assassinations, political skirmishes, insurgency and rape. There are cases of skirmishes between pastoral communities and rural sedentary farmers in some parts of southern Kaduna. This is happening amidst ethno-religious tension in the state. In Kaduna, Kano, Kastina and Sokoto, inter party and intra-party tension and contentions are deepening, cases of last minutes defection and counter defections are increasing between the two major political parties. The insurgency in the north east remains a formidable threat to the North West. Communities in the east of Jigawa state are under threat; there have been cases of Boko Haram attacks and military activities in Gwaram. As candidates indicate interest for different positions in the parties there are palpable tensions everywhere. Like the last quarter, the region has continued to witness series of political attack against the PDP.

With this escalation in insecurity, and as 2015 elections remain less than a month; the situation in the region would be more about drawing a line between insurgency, criminality and politics.

With series of regional meetings in Kaduna, Sokoto and Kano, it is easy to conclude that the political activities are gradually heightening. The next few days would be very interesting.

Historically, Presidential and Gubernatorial elections attract more popular attention, but there are profound indications that Senatorial election would also become a major issue, particularly that most Governors whose tenure are ending are running for senatorial seats. The political environment in these states is therefore being defined by contentions over presidential election, gubernatorial candidates and senatorial candidates across the major political parties. Only two of the seven state governors are eligible for re-election in 2015 – Muktar Ramalan Yero of Kaduna state and Abdul’Aziz Abubakar Yari of Zamfara State. The other five are completing their second and final term. In the main time, it appears the contest is between PDP and APC. Almost all the states are open for grab by either of the parties, although each of the parties is struggling to retain its turf.

“Until the situation in the north east is addressed, we cannot rule out the possibility of more attacks across the country. In the last three years, all the states in the north east and some parts of North West of Kano, Kaduna and Jigawa States have been attacked by Boko Haram. It is even more likely now that electioneering is fast picking up. Criminal elements and political party thugs can disguise as Boko Haram to perpetuate mayhem on opposition and innocent Nigerians”. The Group said.

According to CLEEN Foundation, inadequate logistics and welfare for security agents on election duties also pose a serious danger to the electoral process as this would make them susceptible to political influence.

CLEEN Foundation in its preliminary reports on Ekiti and Osun governorship elections observed that during in election these states, inability of electorates to obtain their PVC and register during the CVR exercise is tinder box that could cause violence during the forthcoming general elections in the entire South West. It would be recalled that INEC has repeatedly announced that only those who have PVC would be allowed to vote.

The group also looked at the recent campaign speeches as inciting statements and hate messages carried about by desperate politicians across the party divides, and stated that such utterances could be a major risk of political violence.

Recently reported statements by the Governor of Jigawa and Kastina States are some prime examples. CLEEN’s survey of the political clement in some of these states revealed that many politicians are moving around party thugs and armed youth groups. “This could create clashes between parties if their paths get to cross in campaign locations”.

As for the youths, they are more of purveyor of conflict and in the

South West, various on and off campus cult groups, members of the road transport unions, street urchins (popularly known as Area Boys), and vigilante groups operating in the region provide chains of supply of political thugs used by party leaders and contestants to perpetrate election related violence.

The issue of smuggled arms and ammunitions that are in the hands of thugs are sometimes bought by politicians to arm their thugs. Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States share border with Benin Republic. Activities and presence of non-state actors are also crucial as election draws near.

There are a number of non- state security outfits operating in the South West. The most pronounced among them is the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), members who work as private security guards in many communities in the region.

A state like Ogun also has a Vigilante Security outfit funded by the state government to complement the Police and other federal security agencies. Members of the vigilante outfits and Neighbourhood Watch most times carry weapons that are unlicensed and operate illegal detention facilities as well as being allegedly involved in extra judicial killings. They are also part of the supply chain for politicians in need of thugs for electoral violence.

According to CLEEN, many of these thugs masquerade as members of the youth wings of political parties or aides to politicians while some, who are apolitical, are just recruited to perform specific illegal functions during the electioneering process.

There are also possible impacts of presence of migrants/Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), if any, on the elections. The resurging acts of terrorism in the northern Nigeria particularly North Eastern states of Adamawa, Yobe and Borno have made a lot of people to flee to safe haven like the South West particularly Lagos where some alleged members of Boko Haram members had been previously arrested.

“In fact, on August 18, 2014 an attempt by a member of the dreaded Boko Haram sect in Lagos was foiled by vigilant security operatives around the airport. The suspected Boko Haram suicide bomber was arrested at the entrance of Centrex, a facility belonging to the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). It was learnt that the physically-challenged suspect was halted and searched by private security personnel manning the entrance while he (suspect) was making for the gate”, CLEEN added.

“Earlier, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in July claimed responsibility for the June 25 blasts near Folawiyo Energy fuel depot in Apapa, Lagos. The mystery blasts killed five persons and the suicide bomber was said to be someone in hijab which could be a man or a woman.

“Due to Nigeria’s porous borders, some illegal aliens from West Africa such as Benin Republic, Togo, and Ghana have been reported to move en-masse into Nigeria territory illegally. These immigrants are sometimes involved in trans-border crimes such as smuggling of food items”.

To avoid the looming and gloomy danger to reign, CLEEN also recommended that some steps should be taken to pour ice on the tensed areas. According to the organisation, PVC and Continuous Voter Registration should be continued to give Nigerians the opportunity to participate in the scheduled election.

“The increasing accusation of possible disenfranchisement by opposition political parties could be major threats to the election particularly in Kano state. INEC should respond to this with all seriousness. All the cases of missing data in voters registered should be addressed through extended continuous voter registration. INEC should ensure all registered voters received their PVC”, Ralph Mbaegbu, Programme Director of CLEEN stated.

“The electoral commission should ensure free, fair and credible election. This can be achieved only if INEC commences early preparation for the elections. Some of these preparatory issues should include update of electoral laws, effective distribution of PVCs, update of voters register and training of ad hoc staff”.

The group stated that inter party dialogue should be encouraged. “Sokoto State government sets a good example a few months ago when it taken a number of steps to remove potential triggers and force candidates to adhere to agreed-upon norms. For example, state officials banned the large campaign posters that have previously instigated fights between opposing supporters. Roundabouts were rented to banks for advertising space instead. Sustaining this initiative will require support from relevant quarters and replication in other states”.

CLEEN said election related stakeholders such as security agencies, INEC, political parties and civil society groups must work together in preparation for the 2015 election and mainstream conflict management in their plans. The Foundation recommended a quarterly security situation review and said it could be very helpful to INEC, law enforcement agencies and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs).

“The increasing cases of rural banditry and cattle rusting are not getting the required attention. It is very important to understand and deal with this new security challenge before it builds a life of its own. Allowing it to fester could be major risk for national security”.