Group raises alarm over Ekiti State election and security threat assessment

By

Emeka Ibemere

As preparation for the much awaited Ekiti State Governorship election scheduled for June 21, 2014 remains two weeks from now, it’s expected that much effort has been committed to have a free and fair election.

Not only that, more important expectation is that the stakeholders going in for the election that would produce the man or woman who would steer the ship of the Ekiti State, must have also done their jobs creditably well.

The election has been predicted by political pundits and seers’ to be keenly contested, especially from the ‘political heavyweights’ of torchbearers from the three major contending political parties and candidates.

However, election is measured by its violence-free conduct parameter rather than any other parameters especially as it concern about election related violence.  Besides, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is also going to be tested on such parameters in being in the conduct of the election and its outcome.

Already, the election has attracted enough ugly, bad and good interests because of the fact that the contenders and pretenders in the election are going to go ‘head-to –head’ in the election.

It’s on these grounds that CLEEN Foundation, a Non Governmental Organization, NGO, based in Lagos State raised an alarm on the election, especially on the security threats facing the election as the D-day draws near. Chinedu Nwagu CLEEN Foundation’s Programme Manager, who conducted the Election Security Brief reports in his brief.

 “After the not-so-impressive conduct of the Ekiti Governorship election, many regard the Ekiti state election as a test-case of INEC’s preparedness for the 2015 general elections. Attention is also on the security agencies, particularly the police, with regards to election security”, CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Brief (ESB), stated.

“Historically, violence has always been associated with elections in Ekiti State, and already pockets of violence were recorded during party primaries and the on-going campaigns. Moreover, coming at a time many would regard as the most challenging for Nigeria security wise, the Ekiti election will no doubt test the capacity of security agencies to provide security for future elections. This edition of CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Brief (ESB) examines the security threats and mitigating factors as well as recommends measures to prevent electoral violence in the Ekiti election”.

According to the brief released by the Foundation last week, major potential flash points were released and cautions were called by the Foundation on these areas.

On the parties going into the June 21 poll, the Foundation said eighteen (18) political parties have been cleared to contest and they fielded candidates for the June 21 gubernatorial election. Regardless of the numbers of parties and their candidates, but that the battle was for only three parties- All Progressive Congress,  APC, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Labour Party, LP.

The Group also highlights the key risk factors that might rear their ugly heads in the election. According to the CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Brief, ESB, delay or non-arrival of election materials and personnel may be misinterpreted as an attempt to rig the election. The Foundation disclosed that in the history of electoral violence in Ekiti State and its incidences of violence, that late arrival of election materials could also be a catalyst that could trigger violence. The organization also looked at the factors that have characterised the campaign period, leading to the election. Moreover, the Foundation lamented that mutual suspicion of rigging between the parties and candidates, and threats of violence are likely going to lead violence and cautioned that suck risk factors being shunned. The Foundation also considered the possibility of federal might influence or regional level constituting the elemental risky factors.

“Timely distribution of election materials and personnel by INEC,  enforcement of code of conduct for political parties and readiness to prosecute electoral offenders, training of DPOs, Area commanders and other security agencies on election security management, strategic and early deployment of adequate security to identified areas of threat in the state and adequate sensitization of the electorate on the electoral process and need to eschew violence, could help in conducting free and violence free election”, CLEEN Foundation stated. “The best strategy to effectively stem electoral violence during the June 21 election is for security agencies to be prepared to deal with issues of electoral violence in all the 177 wards and 16 local government areas across Ekiti State. Additionally, preparing for the worst case scenario may be the best, as contest for the governorship election increases in intensity”.

The organization from their brief  made available to Daily Newswatch, said Ishan, the Governor Kayode Fayemi’s  Local Government Area as well as every area where major political figures and appointees of the state comes from, need to be watched.  Also, the group spotted Emure, as been a no-go area during elections. The Group disclosed that historically, Emure has always been problematic area. “And right now, every candidate would want to win there because it is easier to have an LGA, once you win in Emure”.

For Ikere, the report said it has a reputation for being volatile. Analysing the strengths of the political parties, the Group affirmed that there seems to be more sympathy for the PDP even though the APC is very strong Ikere. “Any electoral outcome against the popular will of the people may result in violence”. And Ijero and Ikole are areas that also need to be seriously placed on alert. As that wasn’t enough, the Foundation said in Irepodun, PDP’s Ayo Fayose and Labour Party’s Opeyemi Bamidele, comes from are significant that security in this area wasn’t undermined. It’s expected that violence is expected to spring up considering the influence of these two heavyweights. Investigation by Daily Newswatch shows that the only way violence could be avoided between the followers of the two gladiators was the merger of forces by the two political giants from this local government area at the last meet to wrestle power out of APC.  Again, the Group claimed that Efon and Oye also need to be watched with the two eyes opened by the security forces with particular attention in Oye, where the incumbent Governor, Kayode Fayemi comes from. While the organization’s periscope saw Ido Osi, as another area likely going to boil.

“The people of Ido Osi are still bitter that their votes did not count in the disputed election between Kayode Fayemi and their son, Segun Oni. Despite the defection of Segun Oni to the APC, the people are said to be prepared to ensure that their vote counts and particularly they are prepared for Kayode Fayemi”, the Foundation’s report reads.  In Gbonyin, the Speaker of Ekiti State House of Assembly’s home caution should also be placed and watched with curious attention.

In concluding their report, CLEEN Foundation observed: “Campaigns for the Ekiti governorship election have already witnessed some level of inter-party violence. As noted by observers, the level of violence already witnessed is yet to be as volatile as those experienced in past elections held in Ekiti State. This may be due to pro-active steps which stakeholders have been taken”.

“However, there is the need for greater sensitization of the public, political parties and their supporters on the need to eschew violence during the elections. INEC and the police need to caution political party leaders to stop using words and phrases such as ‘rig and burn’ which may prepare the minds of their supporters for violence. On the other hand, such violence-coated statements may intimidate electorates and discourage many from exercising their electoral franchise”.

Ekiti State is located in South West Nigeria, was created on October 1, 1996 from the old Ondo State by the military government of late General Sani Abacha. It is bounded in the South by Ondo State, on the North by Kwara State, on the East by Kogi State.

The state has three senatorial districts, 6 federal constituencies, 26 State House of Assembly Seats and 16 Local Government Areas. Ekiti Central and Ekiti North Senatorial Districts both have five local governments each, while Ekiti South Senatorial District has six local government areas. The culturally homogenous people of Ekiti speak the same dialect of the Yoruba language known as Ekiti. However, there are slight variations of the dialect in some areas based on their proximity to Ekiti’s borders with neighbouring States. Agriculture is the main occupation of the people of Ekiti. It provides income and employment for more than 75% of the population of Ekiti State. The state is also blessed with mineral resources which remained mostly untapped. With a population estimate of 2,737,186 and total land mass of 6,353 km2 (2,453 sq mi), Ekiti State is also reputed for the academic prowess of the citizens and holds the record of producing the highest number of professors in Nigeria. For the 2014 gubernatorial election, Ekiti has 732, 166 registered voters, 2,195 polling units, 2,803 voting points, 117 collation centres and 16 local government collation centres.

Upon creation, Ekiti State was administered by two military administrators: Lt. Col. Mohammed Bawa from

October 1996 to August 1998 and Navy Captain Atanda

Yusuf from August 1998 to May 1999. Ondo State, from which Ekiti was carved from, was known for supporting progressive political parties, but with supports sometimes changing towards grassroots candidates who may not necessarily belong to popular progressive platforms. This trait was reflected in the outcome of the transition election in 1999 with Governor Niyi Adebayo of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) becoming the first civilian governor of the state. AD was an offshoot of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) formed by prominent followers of Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The Alliance for Democracy effectively won the six south west states, including Ekiti, in the 1999 election. Conversely, in 2003 the entire south west states, with the exception of Lagos State, were won by the PDP. Mr. Ayo Fayose of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was elected as Governor, as part of the PDP almost-clean sweep of the South west. Ayo Fayose’s tenure was terminated three years later through impeachment by the State House of Assembly. Fayose’s impeachment on October 16 by the State Assembly (and brief replacement by Speaker Aderemi) was declared illegal by Federal Government; the period was followed by a prolonged political crisis. Ekiti State was consequently administered by Retired General Tunji Olurin, who was appointed administrator after the declaration of a state of emergency by President Olusegun Obasanjo. On April 27, 2007 Olurin was replaced by Tope Ademiluyi as Acting Governor. Segun Oni emerged from controversial primaries within the PDP and was elected governor in the 2007 election which was marred by widespread irregularities. The then

Action Congress (AC) candidate, Dr. Kayode Fayemi challenged his election and forced a rerun in May 20

09. The May 2009 rerun was characterized by even worse rigging and the election was disputed again. Eventually, after three years, the election of Oni was terminated by the court and Dr. Kayode Fayemi was declared the duly elected governor of Ekiti State.
“The PDP is keen on winning back those states the party lost to the opposition in the South west. A successful outing for the PDP in Ekiti State may be the needed booster for recovering its lost political edge in the region. On the other hand, since democratic transition in 1999, none of the governors have successfully been elected for two terms. While PDP Ayo Fayose is attempting to return for a second term (technically), the incumbent Governor, Kayode Fayemi will attempt to come back for a second term in office. Whichever way the election goes, both the PDP and APC may have the opportunity to break the one term jinx”, CLEEN Foundation stated.

The contenders at a glance

1. Action Alliance (AA) Mr Opeyemi Akinyemi

2. All Progressive Congress (APC), Governor Kayode Fayemi

3. Accord Party (AP) Mr Kole Ajayi

4. African Democratic Congress (ADC), Mr. Okoko Bola

5. African Peoples’ Alliance, (APA), Mr Adebayo Ogunlola

6. Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, (ACPN), Mr Peter Bamigbade

7. Alliance for Democracy (AD), Mr Osekita Victor

8. Citizens Popular Party (CPP), Mr. Ayodele Olayinka

9. KOWA Party (KP) Pastor Ade Joseph

10. Labour Party (LP), Mr Opeyemi Bamidele

11. Mega Progressive Peoples Party, (MPPP), Mr Akinbola Joseph

12. National Conscience Party, (NCP), Mr. Ilesanmi Emmanuel

13. People’s Democratic Change (PDC), Mr. Banjo Gboyega

14. Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), Mr Gbenga Adekunle

15. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Ayo Fayose

16. Progressive Peoples’ Alliance (PPA), Mr Animasanu Goke.

17. Social Democratic Party (SDP), Mr Adekola Ayo

18. United Democratic Party, (UDP), and Mr. Adeniyi Philip.

Support for the production of the Election Security Brief  was provided by the DFID's Justice for All (J4A) programme.