Election: Nigerians panic over tension in Nigeria

Emeka Ibemere

Inspite of the shift in the general election date to more six weeks, from February 14 to March 28, to be precise, tension, fear and uncertainty continued to hover over Nigeria’s political landscape.

The worse and the new fears are that the heated tension could provoke military intervention.

The fears rose when the decision by Nigeria's electoral commission to postpone the upcoming general election due to security concerns over the Boko Haram insurgency nearly brought the country closer to a political crisis.

 “The Nigerian media are not helping the situation, Chijioke Anyanwu, a media consultant in Lagos State, told our correspondent”.

 “Honestly speaking, Nigeria media is fanning the embers of fears and uncertainty especially in this year’s election. They have been used to heat up the polity”.

The Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, announced its decision last week, Saturday to annul the earlier February 14^th date citing the military's assessment of security in the troubled zones of the country as excuse adding that they wouldn’t guarantee security because of the newly announced military operations in Nigeria's troubled north-eastern states.

But cynics and opposition parties view the extension as a decoy by the sitting President Goodluck Jonathan, who is facing fierce battle from main opposition party candidate Muhammadu Buhari not to handover in May 27^th , 2015.

Fears grew more last week, when rumours started frittering in that the President had asked the INEC boss to proceed on indefinite leave of absence after he was accused of shifting the election to enable PDP rig the poll.

According to opposition party APC, if elections are delayed yet again, the government could end up holding power past the planned leadership transition on May 29. This however, could lead to political impasse, threatening its already fragile peace and leading to major economic fallout, a replica of the June 12 election.

“The postponement suggests desperation on the part of President Jonathan, who has a very strong contender to beat in the person of General Buhari, who has a nationwide support,” says Richard Akinola, a public affairs analyst.

Supporters of Mr. Buhari are questioning the security threat reasoning, and argue that the delay solely benefits the president.

“I ask Nigerians to question why these service chiefs decided to launch a major operation a week before the election,”

Sen. Bola Tinubu, a leader of the opposition party, said in a statement Monday.

“What is new about the security situation in the last two weeks that has not been there these past years? The date and importance of the election was well publicized.”

However, President Jonathan seems to have poured cold water on the tensed minds of Nigerians by promising that May 29, the date by which the constitution mandates a new president must be installed, is “sacrosanct.”

 “INEC’s decision ought to not generate acrimony since it acted within its powers under the law and in consultation with all relevant stakeholders”, Jonathan said in a statement.

Human rights lawyer Femi Falana admits that the INEC acted within its constitutional powers. But he accused Sambo Dasuki, the national security adviser who has called for a delay for weeks, of committing a ‘coup’ against the constitution.

Mr. Falana warned in a statement that if Boko Haram is not contained before the new date, the election might be postponed indefinitely, paving the way for an interim national government.

Other experts say the delay gives the government more time to court local governments and reaffirm uncertain loyalties exposed during the campaign. State governors and local senators are keys in ensuring a presidential win and shifting loyalties have left Jonathan's camp in a precarious position.

On his own, Buhari made it clear that his party would not accept another shift. “Our hope is that with this rescheduling, the security services will do their best to ensure that the security environment needed for safe conduct of the 2015 elections is rapidly put in place,” he said.

Professor Attahiru Jega, the electoral commission chairman, is hopeful that necessary steps would be taken to hold the election.

Meanwhile many Nigerians, especially those in the worst-hit northern states, are sceptical of the government's capability to root out Boko Haram in such a short period.

 Mazi Nze Nwabueze, a business man in Borno State said he is afraid of the election. Nze Nwabueze was in Idumota, Lagos Island to buy baby wears, said he has sent his family to Aba in Abia State for safety and would only rejoin them a week to the March election.

Mounting tension was the scene of soldiers who were allegedly stationed for a three-day siege to the Ikoyi, Lagos home of All Progressives Congress (APC), National Leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It was also gathered that a military team stormed the Imo State Government House in Owerri, deploying an armoured tank.

The two incidents raised the fear of Nigerians about the impending crisis the election was going to generate in few weeks from now.

APC have raised the alarm of a likely compromise of the military by the PDP to rig the elections. The PDP and the military have, however, denied the allegation.

In a statement, the Tinubu Media Office said: “For three straight days, the private residence of the national leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu, has been under surveillance by battle-ready and helmet wearing soldiers”, the statement reads.

“Numbering close to 30 and riding in three patrol vans and an army truck stationed close to the entrance of the gate to Tinubu’s house on Bourdillon Road in Ikoyi, they have become a permanent feature. Their obvious targets, Tinubu, himself and perhaps the hordes of politicians and visitors that visit his Bourdillon residence”.

“The soldiers were first noticed on Sunday, a few minutes to 11pm in an army truck. They were stationed about 500 meters away from Tinubu’s gate. Later, they moved close to his gate as if making efforts to enter. The stern looking soldiers were around for hours on Sunday and returned on Monday to continue their surveillance. Monday night about 10.45pm, they returned to the residence in two army vans and were there throughout the night. Some of the soldiers discharged from the van and walked back and forth in front of the house and around the house in what is clearly some casing effort.

“This morning (Tuesday), two vans from the army were stationed on both sides of the house along Bourdillon Road, their missions shrouded in secrecy.”

Meanwhile Bola Tinubu said he would not be intimidated by the show of strength, intimidation and possible harassment.

 “I remain resolute in my advocacy and support for the rule of law. Jonathan’s government has through the service chiefs staged a coup against Nigerians and the Constitution and now wants to silence his critics. I will not be muzzled through the barrel of the gun. The guns and bullets they should use to defeat Boko Haram are now being turned against the opposition and innocent Nigerians,” he said.

The statement added: “The exact mission of the soldiers is not known but it fits clearly into a new pattern of intimidation of leaders of the APC and the opposition.

“It might be part of a broader plan by the Jonathan presidency to intimidate Tinubu and his political associates and scare him from making statements or building a broad coalition against the government as he did during the NADECO days.

“As the scaremongering by the army continues, Nigerians must come to the realisation that the military has abandoned its statutory role and have now been dragged into partisan politics. Nigerians and the South West should hold the Jonathan-led military responsible if any harm or danger comes to Tinubu and his family. The case of the ‘Unknown Soldier’ is too recent in our memory.”

But the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 81 Division, Major – General Tanmi Dibi, said his men were on regular patrol across the state. He said the Army at the weekend began its routine “show of force” which, is an exercise embarked on whenever there is election.

He debunked the allegation that soldiers laid siege to Tinubu’s residence, arguing that Governor Fashola was aware of the ongoing patrol across the state.

“How can anyone accuse the army of laying a siege to Bourdillon or Asiwaju Tinubu’s place? That is most untrue. Soldiers attached to the security outfit Operation MESA and other task forces have been on general patrol across the state. He said the entire Ikoyi, Victoria Island and Lekki are being patrolled.

According to him, even on the Mainland, his men have been patrolling.  “They have been keeping awake while the masses are asleep to ensure that we continue to enjoy the peace and security we have in Lagos. Even the governor is aware of these patrols or is he now saying he does not like the efforts being made by security agencies in the state? Is he saying they don’t like the peace and security we have been working hard to sustain? He queried.

“Politicians must endeavour to leave the army out of politics. It is not good when soldiers are doing their best and different meanings are read into their action. “I am not saying it is not possible my men stopped at Bourdillon. There is the possibility they must have stopped there in the course of their patrol but that does not mean they have been deployed there or have invaded the place.”

In Imo State, there was also an allegation that the Federal Government deployed soldiers in Owerri. The report said the soldiers were stationed at strategic areas including Assumpta Cathedrals junction and Isu junction. The solders are with their camp beds, decked in full military fatigue with armoured tanks.  Imo citizens were said to be in tensed mood and are afraid that the deployment wasn’t in preparation for announcement of the state of emergency in the state.

But Cosmas Ukwuoma, director of publicity, Ken Ojiri Campaign organisation told Newswatch Times on phone that there wasn’t anything like siege at the Imo State government House by soldiers and said that the APC is crying wolf. He said its APC’s campaign of calumny to curry favour from Imolites adding that the wicked and the corrupt are afraid of themselves. Ukwuoma said there is no military tension in Imo. According to him, it’s a routine military exercise each election year for armoured tanks to be stationed at the strategic places for security purposes.

Inspite of the accusation against the military, the Nigerian military has vowed to stay out of politics surrounding the country’s upcoming presidential election amid claims that it said it could not guarantee the election commission chairman’s security unless the army got six more weeks to contain the Boko Haram.

"It is important to reassure Nigerians that the military will remain professional, apolitical and non-partisan in all operations related to” elections, Major-General Chris Olukolade, a Nigerian defense spokesman, said in a statement.

Major-General Chris Olukolade accepted that there was palpable tension being generated with regards to the roles of the Nigerian military in the ongoing political activities and recent developments, especially in relation to electioneering.

The Nigerian military’s alleged plans of interfering with the election became known when Attahiru Jega, chairman of Nigeria’s election commission, said the office of the country’s national security advisor wrote him a letter that the military couldn’t guarantee his safety unless he postponed the Feb. 14 election.

Even as the federal government and her security agencies continued to assuring Nigerians of peace and violet-free election, non-indigenes fear poll shift backlash in northern Nigeria.

While Ndigbo leader in Plateau States assured all Igbo residents in Plateau that the election was going to be peaceful.  But the tension hovering around the election and its ethnic sliding the poll is shaping into are not quite assuring.

Last week Sunday in the Northern part of Nigeria, there was noticeable poor attendance in churches in the Kano metropolis with Christian faithful and residents, mainly non indigenes stayed away. Investigations revealed that majority of non-indigenes, mainly Igbo-Christians, had fled over fears the shifted general polls may ignite violence.

Reports say that Our Lady of Fatima Catholic Cathedral in the Sabon Gari area of the metropolis, populated by the non-indigenes, showed that only few faithful attended Sunday service, with scanty and empty chairs everywhere in a church which hitherto recorded hundreds.

The incident was noticed few days to the earlier scheduled February 14 election which was later postponed. But despite the extension, the towns looked scanty as shops were seen locked. Some have relocated their kids to south-east even as school calendar were yet to be completed.

It was gathered that at normal period in the church, the Cathedral administrator usually organizes three church services on Sundays. But within the last two weeks, this has reduced to two, with the first mass holding from 7 am to 9 am, while the second and last mass for the day commencing from 9 am to about 11 am.

Sabon Gari Area of the metropolis, where over 80 per cent of Igbo Christian worshipers are located showed a similar situation, with less and less people in service.

From reports made available to Newswatch Times, over 70 per cent residents of Igbo extraction were said to have relocated from the city, with commercial activities dwindling considerably.

As law enforcement agencies are alleged to have been appealing to the non-indigenes not to relocate, as their security would be guaranteed before, during and after the general elections

It was further gathered that some of the southerners that still remain in the city are very apprehensive and they said they are troubled by phone calls from relatives, telling them to either come home or tread cautiously because of the evident high insecurity in the north.

An Igbo leader in Jos, Plateau State, Onye Ndu Ndigbo, Chief Samuel Achi, advised Igbo residents in the state not to panic over their safety during and after the 2015 general elections, saying adequate security has been taken to guarantee their safety.

He advised them to stay where they are and exercise their franchise and not put themselves into greater risk by running away on accident-prone roads.

Achi said the community has gotten adequate assurances from the police and all the security agencies in the state to safeguard their lives and properties, adding that it would be futile leaving their means of livelihood and running away because of election.

“It makes no sense leaving where you have been living for many years to your village where you go once in a while. It is better you stay and defend your investments. Those who are encouraging you to run away only have eyes on your investments. We should learn a lesson from what happened in 1993 during the annulment of the MKO Abiola election when many people lost their lives in avoidable road accidents,” he said.

He noted that having registered in their various places of residence, their voter cards would be a waste if they failed to use them, adding that “wherever you may chose to run to, remember that you may not be totally immune from witnessing any political violence as every other part of the country could be vulnerable.”

Achi also called on them, especially Igbo youths, to remain peaceful and law abiding and report any suspicious movement around them to the law enforcement agencies.

An ex-Nigerian president is worried the country’s military is steps away from taking power. Olusegun Obasanjo also warned the government not to give the military an opportunity to return to power.

In the meantime, the country remains on tenterhooks after the independent electoral commission delayed the elections for six weeks until Mar. 28.  Obasanjo’s concern is that postponing elections because of an unpredictable security situation could lead to further delays. If a new government is not sworn in by May 29, it would trigger a constitutional impasse, allowing the military to take control via an interim government.

The uncertainty has led to speculation and rumours in Nigeria that the military, which has ruled the country for more than half of its 54 years since independence, would make an unwelcome return, fuelling tension in the land.

“I sincerely hope that the president is not going for broke and saying ‘look dam it, it’s either I have it or nobody has it’. I hope that we will not have a coup. I hope we can avoid it,” Obasanjo told a foreign media.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday 11, President Goodluck Jonathan tried to pour cold water on the tensed atmosphere when he held a media chat with select journalists to discuss among other things, insecurity in the North-East, the economy, elections, corruption, and other challenges being faced by Nigeria as a nation.

On elections postponement, the president sought the understanding of the international community over the postponed elections. He said the kind of scenarios where elections are postponed for the sake of perpetuating power is not the case in Nigeria.

On the war against Boko Haram, Jonathan said the government has just acquired new weapons, and gotten support of neighbouring countries to fight Boko Haram. He mentioned that Chad waited for African Union approval, which they recently got too. He also mentioned that the issue of security is beyond Boko Haram. The president said it runs into dangerous signals of youth restiveness. In the next four weeks, he said Nigerians would see the difference in the security intervention in the North.

Jonathan said he never sacked Jega and that he has confidence on the INEC Chairman. “I wish Jega was here, I would have asked him to answer whether I have confidence in him. Yes, those who called for his sack may be close to me, but they expressed their own opinion. More than 80 per cent of those who sponsor messages on our behalf we don’t even know them. People use the rescheduling of the elections to misinform Nigerians”, President added.

“I have never thought about removing INEC Chairman, though I have the constitutional power to do so.” Jonathan blamed his supporters for rumours about Jega’s resignation.

“I have not told anybody that I will remove Jega,” he said. He explained that if there were obvious reasons to remove Jega, he would rely on constitutional provision that gives him powers to sack whoever he appoints.

“The level of misinformation, especially from young people is high. Attempting to attack the president is treasonable offence. The president is protected by soldiers, not just the police. People get carried away and make some provocative statements.

Those who pelted my convoy during my campaigns in the Northern parts of the country were ignorant. If INEC conducts the election poorly, it will be on my head.”

According to the President, hate speeches and political violence by both opposition and ruling party members are fuelling tension in the land.

The President explained that, “some people get carried away” by the political play and exudes this violence. He blamed aides and associates of key political actors for the hate speeches and political violence. He did not categorically condemn the hate speeches or war threats or politically-motivated violence.

“We will make sure things are done so that nobody goes to war,” the president said when he pressed for categorical stance on the war threats by ex-militants should he lose the elections. He argues journalists have responsibility to ensure the unity of the country.

The Presidents said the new dates are sacrosanct and a new president would be sworn in by May 29. He argued that the goal is not to totally eliminate Boko Haram but to make adequate security arrangement for the election. Cooling the tension, the president said he would hand over if he loses the next election. “If the elections are conducted and I lose, of course, another President would be sworn in,” the President said. He argued that Nigeria is more important than any individual. President Jonathan assured Nigerians that elections would be conducted and a new president sworn in on May 29. He argued that it is better for INEC to conduct an election everyone would be happy with.