INEC not ready to hold credible free, fair elections---Survey

Emeka Ibemere

A recent survey jointly carried out by The Afrobarometer and CLEEN Foundation (formerly the Centre for Law Enforcement Education), based in Lagos State  through practical sampling has described the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, as not ready to conduct credible, free and fair election comes February 14 election, adding that the election is too close to call.

 “Just under two-thirds do not know if the Independent National Electoral Commission is ready to hold credible free and fair elections; 18 percent say they are ready, and another 18 percent say they are not. Only seven percent have “a lot” of trust in the commission”, the survey report says.

Last week Tuesday January 27, at ZAAZ Hotel 4, Allen Avenue Ikeja Lagos State, Nengak Daniel, programme manager for the CLEEN Foundation, Raphael Mbaegbu, programme officer for the foundation, and Peter Lewis, director of the African studies programme of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC, revealed this in the First Public Presentation of the Findings of Afrobarometer Round 6 Surveys in Nigeria.

According to Nengak, there has been mixed reaction about the readiness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to administer the February 14 presidential and gubernatorial elections.

“The key finding that we found was that people rated INEC as ready to conduct the election. But this was contrasted by quite a number of people who said that they don’t trust INEC at all,” he said. “But we are likely to expect a high voter turnout, as much as 78 percent of Nigerians said that they will almost certainly come out to vote. It seems everyone was waiting for February 14 to go out and cast their vote.”

 “Nigeria’s upcoming elections are likely to be the most competitive in the country’s history, with the parties running neck-and-neck and the outcome “too close to call”. The survey which was published in Lagos stated.

Afrobarometer, the leading continent-wide researcher of African public opinion, portrays Nigerians as people who are deeply unhappy with the country’s trajectory, who believe the government is performing badly, and who also distrust the electoral process.

According to the survey, Nigerians nevertheless showed that they still believe elections are the best way of choosing leaders and that the vast majority say they would probably turn out to vote on February 14. While many are still scared of political intimidation and violence at the polls, those numbers, they survey revealed are lower than they were two years ago.

The survey further stated that at the time the survey was carried out in December 2014, which President Goodluck Jonathan’s approval rating had dropped from 49 percent in 2012 to 40 percent last December.

On those who have made up their minds to vote on February 14, the survey said 42 percent of respondents chose the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and 42 percent the principal challenger, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

When asked not who they would vote for, but who they expected to win, 40 percent said the PDP and 38 percent the APC. These figures are within the survey’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percent.

The CLEEN and Afrobarometer the publishers of the survey report also noted that; “the campaign environment is fluid and highly competitive” and conclude that, “the race remains too close to call”, they added. “Support for the opposition is at the highest level recorded in any Afrobarometer survey, and at the least, the challengers are set to make their strongest showing since the restoration of multi-party elections in 1990.”

In its major findings, the survey report records that three in every four Nigerians say the country is going in the wrong direction, four percentage points up from 2012.

“Between seven and eight of every 10 Nigerians say the government has done badly in creating jobs, fighting corruption, managing the economy and providing a reliable supply of electricity. Sixty-seven percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 57 percent in 2012. Just over half (51 percent) say the government has not been responsive in dealing with armed extremists”, the survey added.

“But the vast majority of those surveyed said 77 percent still believed in elections and 88 percent believed they are free to choose whom to vote for without feeling pressured. While fear of political intimidation or violence still runs at 50 percent, it is down from 65 percent in 2012”.

“Still, Nigerians are sceptical as to whether their votes will remove from office leaders who don’t do what people want. Only 10 percent are confident this will happen, while 68 percent say elections do “not at all well” or “not very well” in removing unpopular leaders”.

The survey also revealed that across the country, between 73 and 85 of people in all regions “will probably” or “almost certainly” votes. And across age groups, percentages ranging from 74 to 87 percent say the same thing.

“This is despite low levels of trust in political parties generally as 29 percent trust the PDP; the same as in 2012 while 31 percent trust in opposition parties up from 24 percent in 2012”. Regional political divisions are clearly shown when voting intentions are broken down by party: South -South: 65 percent will vote for the PDP; 20 percent for the APC”, the survey added.

 “South East: 61 percent PDP; four percent APC. North Central: 45 percent PDP; 35 percent APC, North West: 59 percent APC; 20 percent PDP, South West: 46 percent APC; 19 percent PDP, and North East: 44 percent APC; 43 percent PDP.

According to Nengak Daniel, the survey interviewed 2,400 prospective Nigerian voters for the Afrobarometer poll, with equal representation across the country, and a margin of error + or - 2 percent.

Nengak, a senior member of the CLEEN Foundation, a partner to Afrobarometer team that conducted the study, said the survey was scientific and a true reflection of the prevailing situation on the ground.

“When we asked people who they were going to vote for, we found out that apart from the leading political parties the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition [APC], all other parties stand a very slim chance of winning. Only six percent of people said they were going to vote for them,” said Nengak.

“In terms of the two leading political parties we have a tie,” he said. “42 percent said they will vote for the ruling party as much as 42 percent again said they will vote for the opposition party.”

He said the study asked respondents to predict the winner of the presidential election.

“It turned out that both leading political parties are running neck and neck. Because 39 percent predict that the ruling party will win and 38 percent predict that the opposition would win. The difference between them is small so from our survey, the election is too close to call,” he said.

On security, Nengak said the Afrobarometer study encountered security challenges in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where radical Islamist militant group, Boko Haram has often carried out attacks against unarmed civilians.

“What we did in order not to compromise the integrity of the survey was to conduct the survey in neighbouring states in the north-eastern part of Nigeria in order to ensure that the findings coming from the northeast are not affected by the loss of those three states,” he said.

Nengak stated that the poll finds a significant number of voters in the country’s north will participate in the election in spite of the threats of violence from Boko Haram militants.

“It was surprising to find out that the highest number of voters will actually be coming from the north-eastern part of Nigeria. The lowest number of expected voters will be in the south-south zone of Nigeria,” he said.

“One the other hand when we asked for party differences in the northeast where we are having these security challenges, the political parties are actually running neck and neck. 43 percent for the ruling PDP and 44 percent for the opposition party,” he added.

The Afrobarometer is a research project that measures public attitudes on economic, political, and social matters in sub-Saharan Africa. It is carried out through a partnership of the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin, Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi, and the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University.

Afrobarometer results are based on face-to-face and house-to-house interviews of individuals and are considered reliable and generalizable. As of October 19, 2006, Afrobarometer data and publications had been cited 216 times.

The project has conducted five main rounds of surveys, covering a total of 22 African countries, as well as a number of individual surveys. Round 1 survey were conducted from July 1999 through June 2001 in 12 countries: Botswana, Ghana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. While Round 2 surveys were carried out from May 2002 through October 2003 in 15 countries: the Round 1 countries except Zimbabwe, which was surveyed in 2004 and Ivory Coast, Kenya, Mozambique and Senegal. Round 3 surveys were conducted from March 2005 through February 2006 in 18 countries: the Round 1 and Round 2 countries and Benin and Madagascar. Round 4 surveys were administered between March 2008 and June 2009 in 20 countries: the Round 3 countries and Burkina Faso and Liberia.

Round 5 surveys are being administered between 2011 and 2013. As of April 2013, 22 surveys have been completed, including all Round 4 countries and Sierra Leone and Mauritius. As many as 13 more countries are expected to be added.