Group says 2015 elections violence prone, gives recommendation

Emeka Ibemere

The Cleen Foundation, a group that seeks to promote public safety, security and justice through empirical research, legislative advocacy, demonstration programmes and publications in partnership with government, civil society and the private sector has released her final report, concerning the security threat assessment towards the 2015 elections.

 It was the 10^th report and perhaps the last before the next week’s Saturday March 28 and April 11, 2015. The event took place at the R and A City Hotels, 2 Majekodunmi Street off Allen Avenue, Ikeja, Lagos State.

At the public presentation of the 10^th “Security Threat Assessments: Towards 2015 Elections”, The group said its pertinent to highlight the security threat posed by the election due to violence recorded during the campaigns ahead of the election and recommends the way of tackling it to avoid breach of law and order.

Nengak Daniel Gondyi, Programme Manager, CLEEN Foundation while presenting the survey graphically revealed that out of the 36 States of the federation and Abuja, only few states may be free from violence. He emphasised the key trends that could pose threat ahead of the election booked on March and April.

“This tenth edition of the CLEEN Foundation Security Threat Assessment analyses key trends that could pose threat ahead the rescheduled elections to coming up on March 28 and April 11. The STA provides an analysis of key happenings in the country in the run up to the March and April general elections in Nigeria”, Gondyi stated.

“Although the report is designed to provide updates of trends recorded in February 2015, as much as possible, effort was made to provide updates of key trends up to 15th March 2015. The report provides updates on the following five indicator areas”.

According to him, the troubled distribution of permanent voters’ cards (PVC); campaign hate speech and acts of violence, response to identified threats to election by security agencies, protection of the franchise of internally displaced persons and emergence of alternate security arrangements are unarguably factors that could cause violence.

Speaking further on distribution of permanent voters’ cards (PVC), Gondyi explained that total collection rate of PVCs was 81.22% nationwide as at 12th March 2015. He said Jigawa State has the highest collection with 96% and Gombe recorded 96% while Ogun State recorded the lowest collection with 49% and followed by the Lagos State with 64%.

“In Taraba State, voters in many local communities were lured into giving out their PVCs in anticipation of either securing employment opportunities with the Federal Government or bank loans with the PVCs allegedly serving as collaterals. In Adamawa State, some youths allegedly posing as INEC officials retrieved PVCs from individuals for ‘rectification of problems’ associated with the cards and then disappeared with them”, Gondyi stated.

“Even if the cards cannot be used by those who acquire them, the original owner would have been disenfranchised”.

Gondyi stated that in Ogun State, INEC officials reported to the CLEEN Foundation that 555 PVCs belonging to deceased people were discovered in the state after the commission displayed the names of those that were yet to collect their PVCs.

While Stolen PVCs were returned during a sensitization meeting in Lagos State, other Nigerians are concerned that the country might end up in a scenario where there would not be enough time to use the technology and it would be jettisoned and the elections would be conducted as previous ones.

“In Plateau State for instance, Governor Jonah Jang has dragged the INEC to court on behalf of himself and several citizens of the state that are yet to be given their PVCs. This is viewed more as a deliberate attempt by INEC to disenfranchise these eligible voters”, CLEEN Foundation Programme Manager quipped. On campaign hate speech and acts of violence which has characterised the campaigns so far, Gondyi revealed that political parties, especially the two major People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC), seem to have reached their climax level in terms of campaigns and strategies to win elections across the country.

The survey report said many of the campaigns and strategies adopted by both parties are thought to be unethical and violates the Advertising Practitioners Council of Nigeria (APCON), and National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) Codes guiding political campaigns.

 The Programme Manager cited an example of the visit by APC’s presidential candidate, General Buhari to Maiduguri on February 9, which led to clashes between two rival youth groups supporting the PDP and APC.

“The clash allegedly resulted in the burning of the popular UTC campaign office of the PDP in Maiduguri by APC supporters. PDP youths were later to retaliate in an alleged attack on Governor Shettima’s convoy, a week later exactly at the same spot of the previous clash”, he observed.

He said the response to identified threats to election by security agencies has been encouraging with the final onslaught on the monstrous sectarian gang of Boko Haram in the North East of the country. The survey report hailed the security agencies in tackling the gang. But the report said splinter suicide bombers and unconventional attacks still posed threats to the election.

“Impressive progress has been made in the fight against Boko Haram; however, suicide bombings and sporadic attacks remain threats to elections especially in North East. Subsisting ethno-religious conflict, rural banditry and cattle rustling are sources of concern in the North Central zone and may play out in the elections”, he said.

“The sudden rise of hitherto dormant groups such as the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign States of Biafra MASSOB, Oduwa People’s Congress, OPC and Movement for the Emancipation of Niger-Delta, MEND, and the role they are seen to be playing constitute a threat to the elections”

For the protection of the franchise of internally displaced persons, the report said some potential voters registered in IDP camps in Nigeria, and also PVC distribution to them continuous with advocacy, being made to IDP camps, many of the IDPs who cannot return to their places of registration may not be able to vote thus making the PVC collection futile. Gondyi stated violent hotspots during and after the elections as; Benue, Nassarawa, Niger and Plateau on the North Central wing of the country and said its on RED: According to him, North East comprising of Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe States also wears Red as North West of Kaduna, Kano and Katsina States, still sit on Red colours.

In South- South zone made up of– Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta are not immune from dangers as well as Lagos, Ekiti and Oyo of the South West part of Nigeria. The report picked Abia and Ebonyi States as states on danger alert like the ones before them.

On states on amber, relatively danger zones, Kogi, and Kwara in the North Central while North West of Zamfara, and Sokoto States, also share amber colour with Imo and Anambra States in the South East. Also, in the South West of Ogun State, there will be pockets of crisis.

According to the Survey, the states that are good to go without violence and are on GREEN are the Jigawa and Kebbi States of the North West while South West of Ondo and Osun States wouldn’t have much to be afraid.

The same scenario would play itself in the South East of Enugu State while SS- Edo, Cross River and Akwa Ibom States of South-South would as well enjoy relative peace. Federal Capital Territory, Abuja in the middle of the country is expected to be calm.

CLEEN Foundation warned that there are key risk factors requiring keen attention and action from security agencies. According to the organisation, it could take only a small trigger for violence to erupt in some zones that have been prone to violence such as the North West, North Central and the North East, especially in Kaduna and Kano States.

The Programme Manager said some states such as Ebonyi, Benue, Plateau, and Nassarawa have underlying ethno-religious tensions that could be triggered by political wrangling during the elections.

The group also said apart from the elections security risk factors emanating from the distribution of permanent voters’ cards (PVC), campaign and hate speech, response by security agencies to identified threats to election, protection of the franchise of internally displaced persons, and the emergence of alternate security arrangements discussed above could, perceived partisanship of security institutions could also be a threat.

“There have been recurring allegations of partisan control and use of security institutions in the country. The Police, Military and the DSS have allegedly been deployed and used in a partisan manner by the Federal Government and this could be major threat to security. As we get close to elections, the feeling of political repression and exclusion from the mainstream security cover of the State could be major risk factors”, CLEEN Foundation explained.

“Opposition parties are already reacting to this situation, some state governments have instituted their own security outfits which could serve as counterforce to the federal security agencies. On the other hand, some groups are vehemently protesting the use of the military for any role in the elections”.

Also, the group said electoral manipulation and vote rigging could cause a threat.  Gondyi added that vote rigging or perceived rigging would be the major trigger of violence in the region especially the gubernatorial and Presidential elections.

“INEC has sought to forestall the likelihood of rigging through biometric verification and use of card readers; however, the challenges recorded in the recent field pre-test must urgently be rectified to ensure that the process is efficient and does not result in disenfranchisement as this could be negatively received by prospective voters”, he said.

“The military remains active in its campaign against the Boko Haram in the North East. The recent declaration of Adamawa State to be free from insurgents is gladdening; however, it is doubtful that such a declaration would be made about Borno and Yobe before the polls on March 28”.

The Programme Manager further said that in the neighbouring North West, Kano, Jigawa and Kaduna States remain at the risk of Boko Haram attacks; as in the last three years, different parts of these states have been attacked by Boko Haram.

“Until the situation in the whole of the North East is addressed the possibility of more attacks could not effectively be ruled out. This is especially important now that the Boko Haram is being vigorously routed and considering the leaflets allegedly circulated by Boko Haram promising to disrupt the general elections”.

On recommendations, CLEEN Foundation called on the Advertising Practitioners Council of Nigeria (APCON), and National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) to effectively monitor and sanction media organisations and stations that are publishing advertorials with hate speeches. It also stated that the early warning and response capability of the security agencies should be strengthened ahead of the polls and subsequently, and that a review of election security management be conducted after the general elections, to ensure that areas of lapses are identified and remedial measures taken for future elections

“The role of vigilantes and other non-formal security organisations operating outside of the formal security framework should be properly defined and regulated to ensure that they complement rather than compete with, or oppose the police and other formal security agencies that have the constitutional mandate of providing security before and during the elections”, CLEEN Foundation Manager added.

“INEC should intensify its awareness campaign on the modalities for IDPs to vote especially for those who are outside of formal IDP camps as well as those who are presently outside their state of registration; Also, INEC, the National Orientation Agency and the civil society should as a matter of urgency should intensify efforts on voter education and civic education programmes that fully educate the citizens as to why and how they must vote with the PVC”.

According to the organisation, INEC should endeavour to make supplementary card readers available and accessible to polling units on election days to avoid unnecessary delays in the accreditation process.

 The group warned against the challenges observed in the pre-test exercise and said caution should be immediately taken and rectified and the adequately sensitized the public.

In their recommendation, the group said INEC should develop a process of dealing with the issue of discrepancies of details on the PVC and the Card Reader in a way that the Card Reader can be reconfigured in a timely manner so as to avoid disenfranchisement of any voter.

“Additionally, INEC should provide options that will facilitate and fine-tune the biometric authentication process; make adequate provision for transportation for INEC staff and election materials especially in the rural, riverine and other difficult terrains of the country”, Gondyi stated.

“This is crucial as delays in deployment of staff and materials as well as other logistic challenges on Election Day could be misinterpreted as a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise Nigerians. The INEC should make sure that all its poll workers are adequately trained particularly as the use of card readers makes the 2015 general elections different from the others conducted in the country”.

The group tasked INEC to make sure that election officials are adequately trained on crowd management and queue control as many studies have predicted high voter turnout in the forthcoming polls. They also called on the INEC to collaborate with security agencies, especially under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to provide adequate security for the commission before, during and after the polls.

“Reported cases of politicians and others engaged in vote and PVC buying, thuggery, hate speech and other election offences should be adequately investigated and perpetrators prosecuted in accordance with the provision of section 124 of the Electoral Act 2010, as amended”.

“The Abuja Accord on violence-free elections should be complied with by all political parties and candidates; while this publicly and voluntarily signed accord could serve as a deterrent, the full force of the law should be brought to bear on all offenders”.

CLEEN Foundation stated that Civil Society Organisations should intensify their voter sensitisations against electoral violence, upscale their peace education and violence tracking.

“The use of the biometric verification and card readers means that unprecedented levels of sensitization are required as voters cannot rely on previous voting experience in 2015”, Gondyi concluded.