Emeka Ibemere writes on the fizzling away of power of incumbency in Nigeria politics.
It’s no
news that Nigerians would be on the march again come next year to elect who
will again steer the Ship with the Green; White, Green colour in what is called
the 7th civilian government voyage.
It’s no
news that this democratic dispensation is somewhat unpopular following the
orchestrated plot of some politicians through the alleged dreaded Boko Haram
illicit activities to frustrate it and ship it out in the next election.
Throughout the country, the drumbeat of the
2015 election is drumming loud and clear with all the aspirants having gone to the
‘market to buy’ their various party forms in readiness for the 2015 election.
Nigerians
as well, are ready for the election; as the umpire, the Independent National
Electoral Commission, INEC, are dead ready, for the election described in some
quarters --“as do or die affairs.”
Subtly,
campaigns have started and the usual nocturnal meetings are in top gear, as the
various party primaries start next month.
However,
one thing has been emphasized
and reiterated in the build-up to the election—Power
of Incumbency! What is power of incumbency?
Don Ohakwe,
Orlu Constituency representative aspirant in 2015 Imo State House of Assembly
election said any politician already in office is an incumbent. He said being
in office and trying to contest again is a kind of advantage than trying to
capture it for the first time and to me, “that's the power of incumbency",
Ohakwe told our Correspondent.
In Nigeria
it was gathered that there are laws against using one's office to get
re-elected but they aren't effective because of corruption in the country. Here
power of incumbency is misapplied. It’s a bit different. It shouldn’t be a
situation where a politician is using his office as a tool to get elected or
re-elected by using all the arsenal of federal might to rig election.
Investigation has shown that in a civilized clime power of incumbency is the
belief or assumption by the voter that what they have is better than the
unknown.
Investigations
have shown that voters tend to prefer ‘the Satan they know than the angels they
don’t know’. Ambrose Okon, a businessman
told Daily Newswatch that he is well with the incumbent whom he knows what to
expect and knows where he stands and so forth and so on, but that the new
persons are not known to him, despite their promises and party manifestos. According
to him, he doesn’t know anything about them or where they really stand.
“There is no
voting record to give us any sort of handy as to what he will do once in office”,
he claimed. “So the power of incumbency is that as long as you're not a total
waste of an official then there is a really good chance you will get re-elected
because you are familiar. People don't like change, plain and simple”.
The current
holders of political office or the incumbents in Nigeria may be banking on
Okon’s view but it could be dangerous to believe that Nigerians hate change. This term’s elections are going to be two races
between an incumbents and non-incumbents. For incumbents, whether the
President, Governors, Senators, Representatives and House members vying for
positions in the election of the 2015 should work hard because our
investigation showed that power of incumbency has been dead in Nigerian
politics. All the posts according to our investigation are open seats.
However, incumbents
no doubt have structural advantages over challengers during the 2015 elections.
The next year’s election is expected to be hotly contested races in any
election.
Counting on
some incumbent’s easier access to campaign finance, as well as government
resources that could be indirectly used to boost a campaign; an election
victory could sway their ways.
In Nigeria
incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination to run for office under
the criminal system called ‘consensus or internal arrangement’. So, unseating
an incumbent president, senator or other figure during a primary election is
very difficult, and even in the general election, incumbents have a very strong
record.
Since
uninterrupted democratic dispensation starting from the ex-president Olusegun
Obasanjo in 1999, Nigeria for instance, the percentage of incumbents who win re-election
after seeking it in the House of Representatives and the senate including
governors and House of Assembly members have been on the low side for over 40%
for over 15 years. Strong indications where some of them didn’t return were
because they quarrel with the presidency, or on corruption charges.
Investigation showed that many incumbents that returned were given straight
tickets by their parties and avoided primaries. In the last few elections, no
President has failed to return back to his seat but governors, senators,
Representative members and Hose members have been kicked out of their seat in
their bid to bounce back.
According to
research in on-line publication, Boundless,
“there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the
downfall of the incumbent. Popularly known as the anti-incumbency factor,
situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven himself not worthy
of office during his tenure and the challenger demonstrates this fact to the
voters”.
According to
the research an anti-incumbency factor could also be responsible for bringing
down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms in spite of
performance indicators, simply because the voters are convinced by the
challenger of a need for change.
There has
been increasing trends in Nigeria where incumbents have been defeated by new
challengers, an unusually low number of seats, both in government Houses,
Senate, Representatives and State House of Assemblies have changed hands in four
previous elections in Nigeria. It’s really no mystery that new challengers beat
incumbents get elected. Their advantages are parched into the masses who defied
every logical reasons and promises of the incumbent to vote them out.
The question Daily Newswatch is asking is: Will power
of incumbency determines the next election victory or will it not be effective.
Your guess is as good as ours, if you consider the strong wind of opposition
swinging like a pendulum.
Investigation carried out by our correspondent revealed that incumbency
power has fizzled out of Nigeria political elections since the new dispensation
kicked off in 1999.
Despite the clear
change in some elections, there is a reason incumbents keep getting re-elected
that’s also worth considering. Voters — that’s the electorate.
It has been
reported that most Nigerians don’t vote in an election due to failure of the
government to convince them previously that their votes count. Also checks
revealed that corruption begets their political apathy, which means that a President,
senator or representative member, governor, and House of Assembly member might
be elected by only few percent of the eligible voters.
It was
gathered that those who do vote often cast their ballots on tribal,
professional, religious, and on other unusual reasons.
Some
Nigerians vote because a particular Minister, or government worker is his
relation or from his State. A check showed that Nigerians don’t vote based on
the manifesto of the party or on the ideas of the candidate, and these factors
could return a weak incumbent.
Also, they
don’t vote based on the incumbents stand on a particular social or economic issues.
While others don’t consider looking at an incumbent’s entire record and vote on
a cross-section of vital issues; willingness to work and ability to recognise
and explain the problems of the country, some vote because they have been paid
to vote.
“In Nigeria
at the moment, incumbent factor is dead. It has gone. And in Imo State, is no
longer the issue. It started with election loses so far in recorded in Nigeria”, Canice Nkemjika,
the Project Director, Ken Ojiri Foundation based in Owerri, capital of Imo
State stated.
“In 2003,
Malla Kachala of Borno lost to Modu Sheriff, Mbadinuju Chinweoke of Anambra
State lost to Ngige. All South West Alliance for Democracy governors, except
Tinubu, others Niyi Adebayo of Ekiti State, Segun Osoba of Ogun State, Pa
Adefarati of Ondo State and Lam Adesina of Oyo State lost out”.
According to Nkemjika, Bisi Akande of Osun
State, Mohammed Lawal Kwara of Kwara State, Abubakar Audu Kogi lost to Idris,
Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State lost to Shekarau. Our investigation also showed
that in 2007, Agagu Olusegun of Ondo State lost to Mimiko, while Ladoja in Oyo,
lost to Akala, as Olagunsoye Oyinlola in Osun State lost to Aregbesola Rauf.
Checks also showed that in 2011, Ikedi Ohakim of Imo State lost to Rochas
Okorocha, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of Zamfara lost to Yari, while Akwe Doma of
Nassarawa State lost to Almakura. Just recently, Fayemi lost to Fayose in Ekiti
State.
“What is the
important thing there is what the people want; people are desirous of change
and Ken Ojiri with his humble background has come to offer the people of Imo
State that change”, Nkemjika quipped.
Ken Ikechukwu Ojiri, a technocrat, an
entrepreneur and a formidable aspirant for Imo State Government House, who is a
challenger in the 2015 election, on the platform of the ruling political party,
PDP, when asked on how to confront an incumbent, if he eventually wins his
party’s primaries said, a poor leader no matter his power of incumbency could
be defeated if the people who desire change decide to go for change.
“One good
thing about incumbency thing is that incumbent is not running on the same
platform with me. So, I don’t have any phobia. I don’t like speaking on
incumbency but there are lots and lots of destabilizations in the polity.
People are yearning for a change”. Ojiri said.
According to
him an incumbent could be defeated easily if the challenging parties present
good candidates.
In Imo
State, it will be a smooth sail but with a caveat-there is likelihood that PDP
will take the day but the caveat there is going to be on the selection of the
PDP candidate. This is the issue. If they select a good candidate, running down
the APC candidate in Imo State, is not an issue. It’s a very and very simple
and it’s going to be a smooth sail for PDP”.
Speaking
further, Olomide Segun, a student on Industrial attachment in Lagos State said
incumbency power is an open –ended issue but depends on how formidable the opposition
parties are. “It’s dead when a new challenger is the type that has the welfare
of the masses. When people are in need of change and desired for it earnestly”.
According to him, when people are frustrated with a particular candidate, no
amount of incumbency power would save the candidate.
