Who will safe the Incumbents.

Emeka Ibemere writes on the fizzling away of power of incumbency in Nigeria politics.

It’s no news that Nigerians would be on the march again come next year to elect who will again steer the Ship with the Green; White, Green colour in what is called the 7^th civilian government voyage. 

It’s no news that this democratic dispensation is somewhat unpopular following the orchestrated plot of some politicians through the alleged dreaded Boko Haram illicit activities to frustrate it and ship it out in the next election.

 Throughout the country, the drumbeat of the 2015 election is drumming loud and clear with all the aspirants having gone to the ‘market to buy’ their various party forms in readiness for the 2015 election.

Nigerians as well, are ready for the election; as the umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, are dead ready, for the election described in some quarters --“as do or die affairs.”

Subtly, campaigns have started and the usual nocturnal meetings are in top gear, as the various party primaries start next month.

However, one thing has been emphasized

and reiterated in the build-up to the election—Power of Incumbency! What is power of incumbency?

Don Ohakwe, Orlu Constituency representative aspirant in 2015 Imo State House of Assembly election said any politician already in office is an incumbent. He said being in office and trying to contest again is a kind of advantage than trying to capture it for the first time and to me, “that's the power of incumbency", Ohakwe told our Correspondent.

In Nigeria it was gathered that there are laws against using one's office to get re-elected but they aren't effective because of corruption in the country. Here power of incumbency is misapplied. It’s a bit different. It shouldn’t be a situation where a politician is using his office as a tool to get elected or re-elected by using all the arsenal of federal might to rig election. Investigation has shown that in a civilized clime power of incumbency is the belief or assumption by the voter that what they have is better than the unknown.

Investigations have shown that voters tend to prefer ‘the Satan they know than the angels they don’t know’.  Ambrose Okon, a businessman told Daily Newswatch that he is well with the incumbent whom he knows what to expect and knows where he stands and so forth and so on, but that the new persons are not known to him, despite their promises and party manifestos. According to him, he doesn’t know anything about them or where they really stand.

“There is no voting record to give us any sort of handy as to what he will do once in office”, he claimed. “So the power of incumbency is that as long as you're not a total waste of an official then there is a really good chance you will get re-elected because you are familiar. People don't like change, plain and simple”.

The current holders of political office or the incumbents in Nigeria may be banking on Okon’s view but it could be dangerous to believe that Nigerians hate change.  This term’s elections are going to be two races between an incumbents and non-incumbents. For incumbents, whether the President, Governors, Senators, Representatives and House members vying for positions in the election of the 2015 should work hard because our investigation showed that power of incumbency has been dead in Nigerian politics. All the posts according to our investigation are open seats.

However, incumbents no doubt have structural advantages over challengers during the 2015 elections. The next year’s election is expected to be hotly contested races in any election.

Counting on some incumbent’s easier access to campaign finance, as well as government resources that could be indirectly used to boost a campaign; an election victory could sway their ways.

In Nigeria incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination to run for office under the criminal system called ‘consensus or internal arrangement’. So, unseating an incumbent president, senator or other figure during a primary election is very difficult, and even in the general election, incumbents have a very strong record.

Since uninterrupted democratic dispensation starting from the ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999, Nigeria for instance, the percentage of incumbents who win re-election after seeking it in the House of Representatives and the senate including governors and House of Assembly members have been on the low side for over 40% for over 15 years. Strong indications where some of them didn’t return were because they quarrel with the presidency, or on corruption charges. Investigation showed that many incumbents that returned were given straight tickets by their parties and avoided primaries. In the last few elections, no President has failed to return back to his seat but governors, senators, Representative members and Hose members have been kicked out of their seat in their bid to bounce back.

According to research in on-line publication, Boundless, “there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent. Popularly known as the anti-incumbency factor, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven himself not worthy of office during his tenure and the challenger demonstrates this fact to the voters”.

According to the research an anti-incumbency factor could also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms in spite of performance indicators, simply because the voters are convinced by the challenger of a need for change.

There has been increasing trends in Nigeria where incumbents have been defeated by new challengers, an unusually low number of seats, both in government Houses, Senate, Representatives and State House of Assemblies have changed hands in four previous elections in Nigeria. It’s really no mystery that new challengers beat incumbents get elected. Their advantages are parched into the masses who defied every logical reasons and promises of the incumbent to vote them out.

 The question Daily Newswatch is asking is: Will power of incumbency determines the next election victory or will it not be effective. Your guess is as good as ours, if you consider the strong wind of opposition swinging like a pendulum.

Investigation carried out by our correspondent revealed that incumbency power has fizzled out of Nigeria political elections since the new dispensation kicked off in 1999.

Despite the clear change in some elections, there is a reason incumbents keep getting re-elected that’s also worth considering. Voters — that’s the electorate.

It has been reported that most Nigerians don’t vote in an election due to failure of the government to convince them previously that their votes count. Also checks revealed that corruption begets their political apathy, which means that a President, senator or representative member, governor, and House of Assembly member might be elected by only few percent of the eligible voters.

It was gathered that those who do vote often cast their ballots on tribal, professional, religious, and on other unusual reasons.

Some Nigerians vote because a particular Minister, or government worker is his relation or from his State. A check showed that Nigerians don’t vote based on the manifesto of the party or on the ideas of the candidate, and these factors could return a weak incumbent.

Also, they don’t vote based on the incumbents stand on a particular social or economic issues. While others don’t consider looking at an incumbent’s entire record and vote on a cross-section of vital issues; willingness to work and ability to recognise and explain the problems of the country, some vote because they have been paid to vote.

“In Nigeria at the moment, incumbent factor is dead. It has gone. And in Imo State, is no longer the issue. It started with election loses so far in recorded in Nigeria”, Canice Nkemjika, the Project Director, Ken Ojiri Foundation based in Owerri, capital of Imo State stated.

“In 2003, Malla Kachala of Borno lost to Modu Sheriff, Mbadinuju Chinweoke of Anambra State lost to Ngige. All South West Alliance for Democracy governors, except Tinubu, others Niyi Adebayo of Ekiti State, Segun Osoba of Ogun State, Pa Adefarati of Ondo State and Lam Adesina of Oyo State lost out”.

 According to Nkemjika, Bisi Akande of Osun State, Mohammed Lawal Kwara of Kwara State, Abubakar Audu Kogi lost to Idris, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State lost to Shekarau. Our investigation also showed that in 2007, Agagu Olusegun of Ondo State lost to Mimiko, while Ladoja in Oyo, lost to Akala, as Olagunsoye Oyinlola in Osun State lost to Aregbesola Rauf. Checks also showed that in 2011, Ikedi Ohakim of Imo State lost to Rochas Okorocha, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of Zamfara lost to Yari, while Akwe Doma of Nassarawa State lost to Almakura. Just recently, Fayemi lost to Fayose in Ekiti State.

“What is the important thing there is what the people want; people are desirous of change and Ken Ojiri with his humble background has come to offer the people of Imo State that change”, Nkemjika quipped.

Ken Ikechukwu Ojiri, a technocrat, an entrepreneur and a formidable aspirant for Imo State Government House, who is a challenger in the 2015 election, on the platform of the ruling political party, PDP, when asked on how to confront an incumbent, if he eventually wins his party’s primaries said, a poor leader no matter his power of incumbency could be defeated if the people who desire change decide to go for change.

“One good thing about incumbency thing is that incumbent is not running on the same platform with me. So, I don’t have any phobia. I don’t like speaking on incumbency but there are lots and lots of destabilizations in the polity. People are yearning for a change”. Ojiri said.

According to him an incumbent could be defeated easily if the challenging parties present good candidates.

In Imo State, it will be a smooth sail but with a caveat-there is likelihood that PDP will take the day but the caveat there is going to be on the selection of the PDP candidate. This is the issue. If they select a good candidate, running down the APC candidate in Imo State, is not an issue. It’s a very and very simple and it’s going to be a smooth sail for PDP”.

Speaking further, Olomide Segun, a student on Industrial attachment in Lagos State said incumbency power is an open –ended issue but depends on how formidable the opposition parties are. “It’s dead when a new challenger is the type that has the welfare of the masses. When people are in need of change and desired for it earnestly”. According to him, when people are frustrated with a particular candidate, no amount of incumbency power would save the candidate.