2015: factors that could make or mar it by CLEEN FOUNDATION

Emeka Ibemere

Elections in Nigeria since independence have been characterized with electoral flaws, irregularities in result figures churned out by different electoral bodies that have conducted the elections, and inconclusive results.

But the most serious has been security threats before, during and after each election. And it has been bloody affairs all these electoral years in Nigeria.

However, last week, in Abuja, the nation’s capital and before the clan of political gladiators, stakeholders, media, Civil Society Groups, Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, Electoral Monitoring Groups, different security agencies in the country, and INEC Ad-hoc staffers, a Non Governmental Organization, the CLEEN FOUNDATION, in the build-up to the much talked about 2015, took what it called ‘Security Threat Assessment’ of the 2015 election and brainstormed on the ‘key Risk Factors’, that could make or mar the exercise in Nigeria.

 According to the Foundation, inability of electorates to obtain their permanent voters’ card and register during PVC/CVR exercises, the issue of zoning and religious balancing are claimed to be major risk factors that if not well handled could spell doom for the country. CLEEN also claimed after thorough research and investigation of the entire country, also viewed political assassination, kidnapping, armed robbery and bombings that may escalate as the country moves some months to the 2015. Disclosing further, the Group alleged that the nexus between the inflow of illicit drugs, arms proliferation and organized crimes needs to be effectively contained before the election to avoid bloodbath.

In what the Group looked as a key mitigating factors, that could also spoil the 2015 election, CLEEN Foundation said,  INEC should ensure the proper capturing of voters’ details and ensure it uses the card reader for voter verification during the 2015 polls.

“NEC, National Orientation Agency, media and Civil Society Organisations need to embark on voter education. INEC should shelve the creation of the proposed 30,027 additional PUs till after the next general elections”, Executive Director of the organisation, Kemi Okenyodo, warned.

It would be recalled that in preparations for the 2015 Elections, Independent National Election Commission (INEC) on May 16, inaugurated the National Inter-Agency Advisory Committee on Voter Education and Publicity (NICVEP).

The Commission was expected to issue Notice of Election on 1 October, 2014. INEC distributed Permanent Voters Card (PVCs) and continued with Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) across the country. INEC has also procured 150,000 Card Readers to fast track the accreditation process of voters during the February 2015, General Elections.

INEC has also established citizens’ contact centres as well as on-line voter verification platform. It plans to use electronic transmission of results during the next general elections and is in the process of implementing a red lineation (delimitation) of electoral constituencies aimed at creating an additional 30,027 Polling Units (PUs) ahead of the 2015 elections (21,615 PUs allocated to the North; 8,412 PUs to the South).

From the security quarters, it was heavily reported that the Nigerian Police, through the former Force Public Relations Officer, Frank Mba, had reported that the Police had commenced training of its officers and men on election policing ahead of the 2015 polls.

CLEEN also looked at the gender dimension as one of the factors that needed to be considered as the election crawl closer.

“A combination of cultural practices, religion and a long history of political exclusion has continued to keep women out of active political participation. Women with ambition for prominent political positions have had to endure the usual electioneering process as well as the patrilineal nature ideology prevalent in parts of Nigeria”, the Group stated.

“Women are not currently featuring prominently in most of the permutations, neither are they strategically involved in any of the political parties. Although women usually are more of victims than perpetrators of electoral violence, recent suicide bombings by women in Kano and Lagos States by a person (gender undetermined) dressed in Hijab has placed a different perspective on this opinion. In July alone, five synchronized teenage female suicide bombers killed scores of people in different locations, in Kano State”.

The Group also looked at the presence and activities of non-State actors in the polity as also another factor worth looking at. According to the organisation, understanding the recruitment, operations, financing and accountability processes of non-state actors was crucial even as the election date draws closer.

“In the North West, some non-state outfits are supported and funded by some states and local governments. In some cases parallel or complementary security outfits are established by state governments. For instance, aside the Hisbah in Kano, the government recruited and trained 395 security guards to curb the menace of insecurity and unemployment”, CLEEN FOUNDATION, observed.

“Militant youths called ‘Area boys’ are major players in electoral politics and security in Sokoto state. In Kano, Kaduna, Kastina states with the history of youth militancy, particularly the yan’daba, electoral politics is always an opportunity to perpetrate violence on behalf of their principals. The cases of raids and mass killings by bandits in southern Kaduna are also attracting non-state security response from the communities”.

Also in the North East, the group observed the continued encroachment and establishment of a caliphate by insurgents may cast doubts on the conduct of elections in the region in 2015. The Foundation said in the North Central region, the rise and dominance of militia and vigilante groups operating outside the control of states is an on-going issue. They claimed that the remoteness of the land, makes it poorly policed which in turn increases the proliferation of SALWs.

On the South -South, the ex-militants, cult groups and other dangerous groups supporting the PDP are alleged to create security concerns. It was feared that the existence of these groups may lead to the creation of counter armed groups for opposition parties vying for other government level positions.

And from the South- West, CLEEN FOUNDATION also observed that the most pronounced non-state actors are the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), working mainly as private security guards.

“In Ogun and Osun states, state funded Vigilante Security outfits complement the service of the police and other security agencies. They however carry weapons and unlicensed arms, operate illegal detention centres and are said to be involved in extra-judicial killings”, CLEEN FOUNDATION stated.

Migration and internal displacement was also considered as another factor that could affect the 2015 election. According to the group, there are fore-shadowing of security threats from internally displaced persons (IDPs), across the nation. This notion, CLEEN Foundation stated began in June 2014 when 486 suspected Boko Haram members on their way to Port Harcourt were arrested in Aba, Abia State by the Nigerian army. As that wasn’t enough, in September 2014, rural bandits and cattle rustlers allegedly stormed Zamfara State villages in Gusau LGA killing over 35 people displacing hundreds of people. Many villagers fled after a coordinated attack on their respective communities and camped at Damba Model Primary School.

“Hundreds of refugees including children besieged classroom blocks where they spent days in suspense, receiving emergency assistance from the state and local authorities. Others took refuge in Yandoto, Mada, Marke, Kwatarkwashi, Faskari, Gusau, the capital city and the neighbouring Kastina state”. Kemi Okenyodo explained.

“In the South -South, there are suspected refugees from Mali, North East and South East Nigeria.  The prevalent belief in the region is that these refuges are imminent threats to the security of 2015 General Elections”.

Investigations by CLEEN FOUNDATION, also reported that in the South West, illegal aliens from West African countries such as Benin Republic, Togo and Ghana have been reported to move en-masse into Nigeria illegally through the three states (Lagos, Ogun and Oyo) that bordered with Benin Republic.

“Some of these immigrants are involved in trans-border crimes such as smuggling of small arms which often are bought by politicians to arm their thugs. Also, citizens fleeing from Boko Haram insurgents in the North East often flee to the South West state of Lagos though the state itself recently witnessed one foiled and one successful attack by the same insurgents”.

According to the organisation, the impact of this migration would be immediate humanitarian crises, escalation of Sexual and Gender based Violence (SGBV), disenfranchisement of IDPs, near impossibility to conduct elections in affected states and inadequacy in existing infrastructure of IDP receiving states.

On violent hot spots before, during and after the election, the group stated further:

 “We categorized the states according to the perceived level of threat using traffic light signals (green, amber and red); green indicating stability/lowest threat states and red indicating the highest threat level/ most volatile states”, Kemi Okenyodo added.

“The measures used for the categorization include history of violence, degree of control by incumbent and relationship with the federal government, stability of internal state party politics, existence of terrorist/militant activity, state of emergency or communal/religious conflict, bid for second term by incumbent governor, zoning arrangement, jostle for federal and state legislative positions etc. Most states fit into various categories based on comparison within their region and not on the scale of risks nationally”.

According to the organisation, those on the RED are from the North Central – Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa; North East – Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Taraba; North West – Kaduna, Kano, Zamfara; while South-South are – Rivers; Akwa Ibom and Edo States.  South-East is Enugu and Imo States, while South West has Lagos State.

For the states on AMBER, the group listed Bauchi and Gombe in North East and in North West, Jigawa, Kastina and Sokoto tops the list. In the South East, Abia, Anambra, and Ebonyi States also came first. South West is Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun States and in the North Central, Kogi, and Niger States are to be watched.

Kwara State, from North Central zone is on GREEN. While from North West, Kebbi tops the chart. In South-South, Cross River and Bayelsa States are on the list while in South West, Osun and the embattled Ekiti States are on Green.

Meanwhile, ahead of the 2015 General Elections, the Centre for Law Enforcement Education department of CLEEN Foundation has urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to stay actions on the troubled proposed 30,027 additional Polling Units (PUs) till after the elections to calm frayed nerves and concentrate on other issues to enhance success of the elections.

Executive Director of the organisation Kemi Okenyodo made the call at the public presentation of the “Fifth Security Threat Assessment: Towards 2015 Elections (July-September 2014)”, also said the call by the Acting Governor of Taraba State Alhaji Garba Umar that some politicians are trying to divide the state along religious path should not be ignored as it is indicative of the looming danger ahead.

“The creation of additional 30,027 polling units with a distribution of the North having more than half of the PU allocations led to the southern political leaders openly canvassing for the resignation or removal of INEC Chairman. INEC should shelve the creation. This may calm frayed nerves and make the commission to focus on preparation for the 2015 polls,” Okenyodo said.

When asked to comment on INEC Chairman Prof. Attahiru Jega’s explanation on the PUs, she however said the foundation board had approved the outcome of their report and that does not matter as the commission should have called the stakeholders it was calling now over the controversy, the issue generated before making the PU issue public and that it is not good for INEC to be involved in such controversy months before the elections.

Also speaking on the new PUs African Director of MacArthur Foundation one of the organisers of the event, Dr Kole Shettima, said INEC was trying to do the rational thing in an irrational way and in an irrational country where everything is seen in parochial mind-set, adding that INEC should have been more programmatic and  avoided putting itself in controversies.

He also said INEC release showing 78 percent for North-East ahead of other five regions in the collection and distribution of Permanent Voters Card (PVC) is of concern if the current state in the region is anything to go by.

Speaking further on the coming elections, Okenyodo said INEC has not been able to win the confidence of Nigerians as it is yet to complete voter registration/distribution of PVC and the glaring inability of government to replicate the massive deployment of security agencies as witnessed in the deployment of over 30,000 and 73,000 security personnel for Ekiti and Osun governorship elections respectively.

She also urged the National Assembly to expedite action on the constitutional and electoral act amendments barely five months to the elections, saying this may affect INEC’s already laid down strategic plans for the elections.

While calling for immediate amendment of the Police Act to enhance its professionalism and detach it from political prerogatives, she said the use of masked men as security during elections should be stopped as it poses a great threat to the 2015 elections, adding that it is commendable that INEC has also opposed such move.

CP G. Mohammed and CSP Thomas Nabhon in their responses said the Police and other security agencies are monitoring situations and developments and are also aware of the expectations of Nigerians.

“I believe the Police and other security agencies are up to the task. Let Nigerians be confident that we are up to the task and would ensure the success of the 2015 elections,” Nabhon said.