2015: Adamawa State in the eye of the storm

Emeka Ibemere

 All is not well in Adamawa State politically. Once calm state suddenly turned into political storm of the North West and Nigeria generally which has culminated into a security risk state and worse place to do any business.

As the 2015 general election draws nearby inch, it’s obvious that its not going to be peaceful as usual when focus on the dreaded activities of the outlawed sectarian organisation named Boko Haram. It therefore poses an election security threat in the build-up and during the 2015 election year.

It’s on the basis of this threat the CLEEN Foundation took a security survey of the state in assessing key risk factors that may cause security threat to the election and warned the security agencies, INEC, the stakeholders, citizens of state, administrators, politicians, aspirants in the next year’s election, the media and other Civil Society Group’s attention.

In the security survey of the state in assessing key risk factors assessment of the state, the Group, CLEEN Foundation stated that nearly half of the state mostly in northern and central parts is perceived to be insecure either due to insurgency and activities of restive youths that are thugs.

The Group alleged that from experience of the nature of insurgency in the northeast, there may be infiltration of Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDP) camps in the state by insurgents who may already be disguising in these camps as IDPs.

The security survey also added that heavy security presence in the state capital Yola appears to have had huge impact on the civilian population. According to them, the key mitigating factors are that the security forces should increase their monitoring and surveillance of all interested parties in the State. CLEEN also said the activities of the State House of Assembly should be closely monitored too; because of the recent trend of impeachment processes and the issue of IDP camps should be fully secured to ensure that they are not allowed to be infiltrated by insurgents, thugs or hoodlums; and Almajiris.

 It also quipped that security forces should take due care to ensure that they do not provoke the local population through overzealous acts of some of its officers.

The survey was carried out against the consequent upon the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako on 11 June, 2014, which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled October 11th 2014 as the date for the by-election for governorship election in Adamawa State.

The by-election is of significance in three main respects as it will serve to prove whether INEC can consolidate on the success recorded in the recently held Osun State governorship election, test the capacity of security agencies involved the conduct of election; and more importantly serve as a litmus test for the conduct of 2015 elections in the three states of the northeast currently under emergency rule.

However, in the aftermath of the cancellation of the proposed bye-election in Adamawa, the following threats are likely to emerge. The perceived feeling that the bye-election was cancelled by the national PDP for fear of defeat could as well spark off violence

 The impact of the heavy security presence in the state capital Yola, which have affected the civilian population and coupled with recent report of an eight year old pupil that was allegedly hit by a stray bullet while in school.

Meanwhile, there are potential flashpoints that the security agencies should as well take note of.

The CLEEN mentioned the following areas and considered them volatile in Adamawa State. According to them, the entire Madagali Local Government Area where insurgency is most intense shares borders with Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State and Michika Local Government Area which is close to Madagali are to be focused with security searchlight.  Mubi North and South Local Government Areas due to threats by insurgents are not Boko Haram-free.

While Maiha and Jimeta (Yola North) due to presence of IDPs and restive youths who are thugs and due to fear of insurgency could cause low turn-out of electorate. And Girei could as well witness poor turnout of electorates and campaigns before the election due to same reasons as Jimeta.

It would be recalled that members of the Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, launched an attack in Kubla, Madagali local government area of Adamawa State, recently killing hundreds. Security report stated that the attack lasted for 12 hours beginning from Saturday’s night and lasted till Sunday morning.

Kubla, the scene of the attacks, borders Borno State, another of the three northeast Nigerian states where the insurgent group remains most active.

It was gathered that the heavily armed militants arrived in Kubla and started burning houses and stealing foodstuff, until a contingent of the military was mobilized and deployed to confront them. The soldiers were said to have engaged the militants in a fierce exchange of gunfire overnight.

As that wasn’t enough, suspected members of Boko Haram terrorist sect had also attacked a number of villages in Madagali and Michika LGAs in Adamawa State.

According to reports, the number of casualties may exceed 32 persons.

It was learned that a large number of gun men in military uniform carried out three separate attacks on Shuwa, Kirchinga and Michika communities. They entered in Toyota Hilux pickup trucks, armed with rocket-propelled grenade launcher and explosives. Witnesses said the suspected terrorists gained access to Kirchinga district through the Sambisa forest.

In Shuwa, three catholic churches were set ablaze, as well as a primary school. The Saint Joseph Minor Seminary, the maternity health centre was burnt and robbed. Local residents say three bodies were recovered from the seminary; a total of 20 were killed in and around the village.

In Kirchinga, the gunmen killed eight people and burnt houses while four people died in the attack in Michika. Residents said the victims were a young boy who was trying to run away and three security guards.

The militants also looted and burnt banks and shops before trying to escape across the Cameroon border.

With the bloody killings and Boko Haram attacks in Adamawa State one wonders if election would hold in Adamawa State.