2015: Security threat assessment of the South-East zone

Emeka Ibemere

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), may have kick-started the journey for the much awaited 2015 election on Monday, 17, 2014  by officially lifting the ban on campaigns for the 2015 general elections.

In declaring open the campaigns, the commission said that in line with the electoral timetable and in keeping with the 90 days provision, presidential and national assembly aspirants had from Monday, November 16 commenced their campaigns.

However, governorship and state House of Assembly aspirants would have to wait till November 30, before they could begin their own electioneering campaigns nationwide.

The Chief Press Secretary to INEC chairman, Mr Kayode Idowu, said the commission had put all arrangements in place to monitor the campaigns in line with the provisions of the law.

 “The commission has put structures in place to track expenditures; that structures did not exist in 2011, but now, we have been able to put structures in place to track the expenditure of politicians and we are going to be doing that,” he said.

“Section 91, sub-section 2-7 of the Electoral Act, delves on Limitation on Election Expenses; the maximum elections expenses to be incurred by a candidate at a presidential, governorship election shall be N1 billion and N200 million, respectively.

“The maximum amount of election expenses to be incurred of senatorial seat by a candidate and House of Representatives shall be N40 million and N20 million respectively”, while “in the case of state assembly election, the maximum amount of election expenses to be incurred shall be N10 million.” Meanwhile, section 91 (10) said “a candidate who knowingly acts in contravention of this section commits an offence.

However, INEC may have been serious on the money aspect of the election without taking into cognisance the security situations in the country. Here, we present to you the security threat that rear its ugly heads as campaigns take-off in few days to come.

CLEEN Foundation, a Non Governmental Organisation, NGO, that promote public safety, security and justice through empirical research, legislative advocacy, demonstration programmes and publications in partnership with government, and civil society  took a review of security of the country and highlights security impediments towards realising a credible, free-violence and rigging election.

 In a document made available to Newswatch Times, on the survey, the Group marshalled out the five states in the entire South East, as possible states that might boil, if precautions are not taken earlier before the election.

According to the group, Abia State is a potential state for violence before, during and after the election. What is the reason, when it’s God’s Own State? Zoning formular disagreement!

 Newswatch Times gathered that it was generally believed that it is the turn of the Ukwa-Ngwa zone to produce the next governor of the State and the people of old Aba Division have started mobilizing support for power-shift to the area. The advocacy was based on a supposed Abia Charter of Equity signed by the founding fathers of the state for power sharing being the main constituent units of the proposed state.

The people of Aba Division claimed it was only fair that they should be allowed to produce the governor in 2015 since all indigenous governors from 1991, when the state was created come from Bende Division. Also, Governor Theodore Orji has on a number of occasions expressed support for the Aba Division to produce his successor.

Therefore, the major contenders from the Ukwa-Ngwa clan are Senators Enyinnaya Abaribe, Adolphus Wabara, Nkechi Nwaogu, and Minister of Labour, Chief Emeka Wogu, even though only Senator Nwaogu has publicly indicated her interest.

On the other hand, Governor T.A. Orji is gearing up to represent Abia South in the Senate, and is not ready to hand over to Senator Nwaogu, and this has already started the fireworks, which may not necessarily be threatening to security in the state since the realization of her senatorial ambition was made possible by the support of Governor Theodore Orji.

Police and other Security Agencies in the State:

Since the emergence and the killing of a notorious kidnapper, Osisi nka nkwo, and the presence of the military in the state, calm seems to have been restored with some sense of public safety among the populace.

The noticeable impact of the huge presence of the military is felt in the area of significant reduction in the incidences of kidnapping. What is needed is for the military and security forces in the region to continue to discharge their responsibility in professional manner. “This will nurture a culture of healthy civil-military relation, critical for ensuring the preservation of security before, during and after the 2015 elections. Developments in Abia State House of Assembly and what they portend for elections in 2015: Abia State is a major PDP state; and the Governor has been at loggerheads with some stakeholders to ensure and publicly declare loyalty to the major stakeholders of the ruling party”, CLEEN Foundation observed.

Again, the seeming enmity between the incumbent governor and his former godfather, Orji Uzor Kalu could trigger violence, more so when the former governor has been refused to get PDP waiver and join his former party.

However, the unity and calmness in the state is because Governor Orji has effectively commandeered all apparatuses of the state and the ruling party such that nobody dares go against him. As such, the House of Assembly is widely seen by many observers as a rubber-stamp legislature, given that the House have not gone against the Governor for the past four years. Danger Justification is essentially due to the risks of violence within the ruling PDP and the possibility of not adhering to the unwritten zoning agreement.

ANAMBRA STATE:

If there would be any violence at all, it would be from the legislative elections for the national assembly and state house of assembly elections. So here is where the field for the war rest because, Anambra State does not have gubernatorial elections in 2015, and given that APGA has adopted President Jonathan as their candidate for the 2015 general elections, the National Assembly election promises to be a clash of the titans given the political heavyweights and money bags that are involved.

The review of the security report on Anambra State by CLEEN Foundation to Newswatch Times said none of the serving senators, Andy Uba (PDP), Chris Ngige (APC), and Margery Okadigbo (PDP) was ready to step down for the other. Aside, the recent defection of some APGA legislators to the PDP portends to make it a serious fight to the National Assembly. However, the elections are not expected to be volatile as other states in the region.

If there is anything so far recorded in the administration of Governor Willie Obiano, it’s his avowed determination to ride Anambra State of criminality and insecurity. Obiano has made it very clear that he would not condone any criminal activities and he has demonstrated this by pulling down houses of suspected kidnappers. He has followed this up with logistic support extended to police and other security agencies in the form of donations of equipment and vehicles, including the vigilante.

“Developments in the State House of Assembly and what they portend for elections in 2015: There seems to be not much happening in the Anambra State House of Assembly, apart from the fact that PDP is making efforts to get a majority in the House during the 2015 general elections”, CLEEN Foundation stated.

“Although next year’s legislative elections will be seriously contested in the state, the pact between the PDP and the ruling APGA in the state minimizes the risk of violence during the polls. Categorisation-danger Justification, This is essentially due to the risks of violence during the legislative elections”.

Newswatch Times gathered that the stakes in the National Assembly elections are higher now with the emergence of other contenders like Hon. Uche Ekwunife, who is ready to do battle with others in the PDP, and, others. The serving senators, Andy Uba (PDP) and Chris Ngige (APC) are not ready to vacate their seats.  This election of the titans placed Anambra on the red alert.

Enugu State

In Enugu State, the State carries a heavy risk of violence with the activities of the outlawed Movement for the Actualisation of Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB, in the state in the last one year. This group posed a security threat to the 2015 election in the state. Here, it depends on the party that have their sympathy and the rest is what they can do.

Also, the power sharing and zoning arrangement tends to pose threat to the governorship election. “The governorship election is likely source of high risk of violence given the weight of political contenders and the staunch desire of Enugu North to produce the next governor”, CLEEN observed.

“Already, Enugu North has started showing ominous signs of likely violent reactions that may result from any election that produces a non-Nsukka governor”.

IMO STATE

Without consulting a seer, Imo State posed a very high stakes threat to election security. According to CLEEN Foundation, Imo State is definitely going to be very violent in the months leading to 2015. For now major contenders from the PDP are Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, and Emeka Ihedioha, who has publicly claimed to be governor-in-waiting, immediate past Governor Ikedi Ohakim, Senators Ifeanyi Ararume, Ken Ojiri, and Chris Anyanwu. In APGA is Chief Martin Agbaso as well as Col. Emmanuel Iheanacho. Both PDP and APGA have formidable structures in the state and are investing heavily to recapture the state, while Okorocha’s APC wants to retain the state and show that it is a force to be reckoned with.

Given PDP’s reconciliation of all the factions with the President’s visit earlier in the year, it is expected that the contest will be fierce. Imo State PDP primaries since dispensation of democracy in 1999, has always ended in a fiasco.

Electoral contest in Imo State would likely be very violent, Already, Ohakim’s residence in Owerri was allegedly bombed on 16 May 2014, and some observers believe it has political undertone, as it could have been masterminded by any of the candidates from any of the parties including the PDP or from himself to curry sympathy of Imolites.  All other candidates from PDP and APGA had been at loggerheads with the incumbent governor Rochas Okorocha. APGA had not forgiven Okorocha for decamping after giving him the governorship ticket on a platter of gold.

“As it is, the tide is swaying against the Rochas’ APC government as people openly call him names, as they claim there was nothing to show for the support he was given to come from nowhere to take over in 2011. There is a lot of disenchantment with Rochas’ governance style especially since he joined the APC and has failed to address some developmental challenges”, CLEEN Foundation also observed.

Imo State is a security conscious state as all other states in the South-East has heavy presence of the military. Though there are still cases of kidnapping and other criminal activities, the presence of the military has helped in no small measure to provide a sense of security. With the alleged potent threat of Boko Haram insurgency in the South-East, the presence of the military and other security agencies is a welcome development in the State.

“Developments in the State House of Assembly and what they portend for elections in 2015:  The Imo State House of Assembly which was predominantly and originally PDP moved almost en masse with Okorocha when he became governor under APGA. Thus the general elections will be as hard-fought at the legislative level as it would be at the gubernatorial”.

According to the CLEEN Foundation, the three major parties in the state – APC, APGA and PDP would want a majority in the State House of Assembly as such would resort to all manner of tricks to get the upper hand in the coming elections. Imo State is on red colour, this is because the general elections would be a fought battle at both the gubernatorial and legislative contests, especially with three major parties in the state – APC, APGA and PDP – keen on getting majority in the State House of Assembly. The glimpse of crisis in Imo State was shown during the ward congress of PDP, where the aspirants trying to hijack the congress fought shamelessly with each other and used insulting words to describe others.   Also a PDP primary is going to be a hard-fought primary election; hence they candidates have failed to reach at consensus.

Recommendations

According to CLEEN Foundation, threats to electoral violence stem largely from the high stakes of elections as a result of the high level dependence on government for sustenance. The group stated that politics has become the major source of wealth creation in Nigeria, and so everyone wants to be in one top government position or the other.

“In the South-East, money politics has become the norm so much so that it is only those who have access to ‘government money’ that dictate how the state is run. The grievance of alienation of the Igbo from the presidency and certain politico-linguistic groups in different states from the governorship is an underlying source of violence”. It was against such background that CLEEN Foundation therefore, came out with the key recommendations to secure elections in 2015 with the following recommendations:

“Improved Preparation by INEC, The INEC needs to ensure that the continuous voter registration is completed on time. A lot of people in the South East are apprehensive they would be disenfranchised as they are yet to get registered either because of ‘loss of data’ or simply incompetence on the part of INEC. It is also important to commence early preparation to ensure that materials reach the rural and coastal communities on time and there is enough security to allow citizens vote freely”, the group explained further.

“To ensure increased participation during the forthcoming elections, INEC should engage in continuous voters’ registration until a few weeks to the elections. Public Enlightenment on Electoral Process, Such enlightenment should educate the public on the difference between constitutional provisions of universal franchise and internal power sharing arrangements of parties”.

According to them, the risk of violence by aggrieved communities who felt cheated as result of outcomes that do not respect zoning arrangements of parties would be mitigated; if citizens are informed that constitutional provisions override party arrangements.

“Support for robust security initiatives; The state governments and security agencies should work to handle security at all the nooks and crannies of the state to forestall intimidation of voters and opposing party supporter Working with various stakeholders such as community leaders, youth groups, civil society, businesses and media, state and local governments in the zone need to evolve and support robust initiatives that will improve the level of security consciousness amongst the people of the zone”.

The group also explained what they termed as ‘the Elite Crisis Mitigating Interventions’;

“A key driver of violence is the zero-sum politics that have been linked to unsettled disagreement between political elites. Many of these conflicts are already brewing across states in the zone. It is necessary for some eminent persons with leverage to intervene to mediate in these conflicts as intra-party mediation mechanisms have been weakened by impunity”, the group added.

“Training of journalists on conflict sensitive reporting is necessary. The manner the media has been reporting and is likely to report political conflicts has implications for violence. A cursory examination of newspapers reveals high levels of sensationalism which if left un-moderated will contribute to violence”.

According to CLEEN Foundation, media practitioners should be exposed to training on reporting of political conflicts to mitigate risk of their reports becoming triggers for violence.