X-rating security situation in South-South during 2015 election

Emeka Ibemere

With the much awaited declaration of President Goodluck Jonathan to run for second term in the 2015 election, after many months of foot-dragging and body movements, its clear that the battle line for the 2015 election, has as well being declared open. The winner still lives in the womb of time.

But that is not the subject matter of this report. However, our concern is the security threats posed by the election in South-South zone of the country.

Few hours to the declaration of the incumbent President, a suicide bomber dressed in a school uniform, rammed onto the students' assembly ground of Government Science Secondary School (GSSS), Potiskum, and Yobe State and killed 52 students on Monday, 10 November while seventy-nine others were injured.

Based on these security threats in all the zones, a non-Governmental Organisation, CLEEN Foundation, formerly known as Centre for Law Enforcement Education) is nongovernmental organization established in January 1998 with the mission of promoting public safety, security and accessible justice through the strategies of empirical research, legislative advocacy, demonstration programmes and publications, in partnership with government and civil society. CLEEN in a recent survey, report on security ahead of the 2015 general election.

In a release recently made available to Newswatch Times, the organisation shown incidents of politics-induced security crises- assassinations, kidnappings, bombing and other security risks that faced the country as the election draws near.

Taking the security threats as it concerns the South-South, made up of six states in Nigeria: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Cross River, and Rivers State, the Group said four of these states are high-flyers when it comes to states with huge oil and gas endowment on which government mainly depends for revenues and foreign exchange. “There is no question that the majority of the South-South has consistently articulated their political positions on the basis of perceived injustices around the oil, especially in the context of political, social, economic, and environmental cost of exploring and producing the oil”, CLEEN quipped.

“Ahead of the 2015 elections, it is not surprising that many from the region are showing support for President Goodluck Jonathan, who is from this region. The handwriting is clear-- President Jonathan is seeking a re-election in 2015”.

 South-South has a history of political violence and with growing enormous activities of armed groups and criminal flow of illegal weapons, there are tendencies that the zone is potential for election violence ahead of 2015, and this cannot be discounted.

“The region is one to watch for outbreak of major violence. In the months under review, a lot has happened in the political scenery of the region, including the crisis in Edo State House of Assembly; violent confrontation between APC and PDP members in Rivers State; internal wrangling within the PDP in Akwa Ibom State; and efforts by governors to install their anointed candidates as succeeding governors. All of this, and more, have raised tension and increased the predisposition to violence or threat to security before, during, and after the 2015 elections”.

According to the organisation, in Akwa Ibom State, the security implications of Governor Godswill Akpabio’s seeming determination to secure the Ikot Ekpene Senatorial seat, and contending forces from the side of Senator Aloysius Etok, ahead of the 2015 elections gives worry.

It was gathered that both have large followers who can derail from effective control. A recent statement credited to the Governor and interpreted as death threat by some governorship aspirants in the PDP, clearly shows the extent of division within the PDP.

“The Governor had cursed those nursing governorship ambitions without his permission. He described them as wayward. He was quoted as saying those seeking the office without his blessing is doing so through the back door”.

A member of the Board of Trustees of PDP, Mr Don Etiebet; PDP governorship aspirants Okon Umana and Bassey Albert, among others, have all condemned the Governor’s comments. Such comments from a serving Governor could be a source of conflict within the party. CLEEN stated that it could be a threat to internal democracy of the party as it prepares to elect a flag bearer ahead of the governorship elections.

“The lesson is, violent political communication can raise tension and amplify the risk of violent response by opponents and their supporters. Many of the PDP governorship aspirants believe Governor Akpabio’s preference and struggle for Mr Emmanuel Udom, as his successor is superfluous in a democracy”, CLEEN said.

“In the days ahead, the struggle for governorship will be more intra than intra-party affair. In addition ethnic framing of the struggle for governorship and Senatorial seats is capable of pitting one ethnic group against another. Key ethnic contenders for the office of governor are Oron, Annang and Ibibio”.

However, there are fresh questions that are being asked about the security implications of recent seemingly politically motivated murder cases in the state. The question of level of preparation of security agencies to protect innocent citizens against 2015 is equally being asked.

 According to the Group, the plan of deploying the military by the federal government for the purpose of the elections has been a major issue of controversy with the main opposition party, APC. CLEEN said APC leadership has continued to denounce what it calls militarisation of elections. It would be recalled that recently PDP top politician, Engineer Akaninyene Ukpanah was murdered coldblooded. In the same vein, an assassination attempt was made on Okon Umana’s governorship campaign manager Mr Sunny. “Meanwhile, as with the rest of the country, reconciling the need for security and de-militarisation of the election process remains a difficult matter both for INEC and the federal government”.

Based on the foregoing, Akwa Ibom State is posted as one of the states in South-South that may likely boil. “Areas deserved close watch for violence include, Eket, Ikot Ekpene and Uyo Senatorial Districts”, CLEEN observed.

Meanwhile, the Group has recommended some steps to nip in the bud the security threats. According to them, there is need for politicians to be moderate and civil in their utterances against perceived opponents, they must try to consider one another’s human rights when it comes to verbal exchanges intended to win political points ahead of the 2015 elections.

“In the same vein, INEC must intensify its collaboration with political parties, civil society and security agencies on security ahead of the 2015 elections. Continuous political and election security education can help curtail the risk of verbal-political-communication induced election crisis”.

In Bayelsa State, which is the home state of President Goodluck Jonathan, it is expected of him, within the PDP, to be able to deliver the state in the 2015 elections without tough opposition. That should not be very difficult to achieve as the state is traditionally PDP. Already they have started seeing the elections as a walk-over for party. All the same, the state is easily prone to violence. It was the epic centre of the violent campaigns for development against oil companies and government before the introduction of Amnesty Programme by the federal government.

“Activities of ex-Militants since the implementation of the programme started have continued to paint the state as highly vulnerable. They are implicated in the chain of people involved in oil theft in the region. In addition, since the emergence of APC as a potential counterweight against PDP, members of the party have proved to be a factor in preventing the PDP from having an easy ride especially at the state level”, CLEEN explained.

“Preparations for the elections within the PDP, contention for Senatorial and State House of Assembly constituency tickets and the failure of the party to internally and democratically handle it are capable of raising tension. Having had a terrible history of violence as well as proliferation of small and light weapons, Bayelsa is a state to watch”.

Survey indicates that the fight against oil theft in Bayelsa State seems to be recording some success. This may speak to security matters, giving the violent nature of the business and how that could fuel conflict with security agencies.  Notwithstanding, the state may not notice much crises because President Goodluck Jonathan factor is crucial. He is perceived as deserving a second term and support by the people of the state for being an indigene. The only violent hotspots despite the challenges and risk factors are Yenegoa and Southern Ijaw communities Bayelsa State. It is a state to watch ahead of 2015.

On recommendations, the Group tasked INEC do a lot of work

“INEC must make its inter-agency security forum more responsive to security needs of the state. The war on oil theft should be intensified to deny those who utilise the oil money for purchase of dangerous weapon such opportunities”.

For Rivers State, the road to the 2015 elections in Rivers State is laced with multiple security threats. If truth should be told, the state continues to bear the identity of being the most potentially violent in the South-South ahead of the elections. With about six million people, which are the highest in the region, and contributing about 40 percent of volume of oil production, it is a state to watch.

Security threats emanating from conflictive and bitter relationship between Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amechi and President Goodluck Jonathan has remained a crucial factor in the politics of the state. The Governor will complete his second term in office next year. His defection from the PDP to APC and contention with President Jonathan, his wife and Minister of State for Education, Barrister Nyeosom Wike, has impacted an inherent security threats ahead of 2015.

“Rivers State is almost in a state of paralysis,” was how a public servant serving in the State House of Assembly described the condition of politics in that state.

“With the judiciary not functioning, lawmakers mainly on the side of the Governor, leadership of the PDP and APC and their followers intensely involved in violent communications against one another, it is easy to see why. But it speaks volume about a bigger problem of threat to security ahead of 2015”, CLEEN observed.

In June when 486 suspected Boko Haram members were arrested in Aba by the Army on their way to Port Harcourt, the PDP leadership said the suspects were being brought in by the APC led government to increase their chances of winning the Presidential elections ahead of 2015. Whether this is true or not, it sends a message of threat to the security of the elections. Presence and activities of non-state actors could also affect the state.

 Moreso is the presence and activities of ex-Militants who have continued to create security concerns in the state. They are said to be vocal in their support of President Jonathan’s second term bid and are interested in who succeeds Governor Amaechi.

Recently, gunmen attacked seven communities in Ogba, Egbema and Ndoni Local Government Area of the state, killing 15 persons. News reporters fingered Boko Haram, but the attack was not unconnected with the fact that the state PDP Chairman, who hails from one of these communities, has been in political fight with the APC in the state.

“Ahead of the 2015 elections, this type of attack poses serious security threat. Locals believe the attack was politically motivated. In a similar vein, a traditional ruler in Rumuopirikom attacked his son with a gun over political disagreement as he belongs to the APC in opposition to the son’s ardent membership of the PDP. We later leant Governor Amaechi. was on that fateful day scheduled to visit the community (Barrister Nyesom Wikes home village) for a ceremony. But there was fierce resistance by the opposition.

Categorisation: Rivers State clearly falls within Red alert”.  

According to the group, solutions are that there are needs to resolve current crisis in relationship between Governor Amaechi and the President, at least in the interest of peace, the risk factors associated with violent political communication, use of violent approaches to resolve political differences require cooperation of APC and PDP to resolve. INEC should therefore strengthen its stakeholder forum to be able to bring interested parties to discuss and address their differences for the sake of peaceful elections in 2015.

The Group tasked the Joint Military Task Force to intensify its work to fish out those in possession of illegal weapons and deal with them accordingly ahead of 201 Inter-security agent consultations by INEC should be maintained and invigorated to become more responsive to the security needs of the state. In addition, the civil society should be more actively involved in mediating conflict between the PDP and APC.